FXUS63 KMKX 261943

AFDMKX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI

243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and

  evening. Initial storms this afternoon will include a tornado

  threat, with strong winds becoming more likely with storms

  during the evening. 



- Somewhat cooler and relatively quiet weather expected Friday

  and Saturday, before temperatures turn much warmer/more humid

  on Sunday. 



- A cold front will bring temperatures back to around average

  for much of next week.  



&&



.SHORT TERM...

Issued 243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Rest of this Afternoon through Tomorrow:



Main focus for this afternoon and evening will be severe weather

potential. As of 2 PM, a warm front stretched across south 

central Wisconsin, generally just north of the I-94/US 18 

corridor, curving back southeastward near Lake Michigan. As low 

pressure along the Iowa/Minnesota state line moves east- 

northeastward, this warm front will continue to slowly move 

northward. Convection should expand along the warm front this 

afternoon, though the spatial extent is still in question given

the relatively weak lift. That said, anything that becomes 

rooted in the boundary layer will have a very unstable airmass 

to work with, with MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG. There is also 

a substantial amount of low level CAPE, with 0-3 KM values 

between 100 and 200 J/KG. 



While Low level shear isn't terribly impressive, the strong low

level instability and localized increase in helicity associated

with the warm front may be sufficient for a tornado threat with

this afternoon's convection, along with a few strong wind 

gusts. Weak mid level lapse rates and high freezing levels 

suggest that while a few instances of severe hail are possible,

it should not be widespread. 



Later this evening focus will then shift to a line of storms

moving in from the west. These will be more likely to contain

damaging wind gusts compared to the afternoon convection, along

with a somewhat lower tornado threat. Any eastward surges in the

line, especially if collocated with the warm front or an 

outflow boundary, will still pose a risk for QLCS circulations, 

however. 



Storms will gradually weaken with eastward extent this evening, with

the severe weather risk expected to largely dissipate by 

midnight. A few showers may linger into Friday morning, but 

otherwise most of the day on Friday should be dry. Highs 

tomorrow will be cooler, with upper 70s to around 80 expected. 

Winds will turn more northwesterly by afternoon helping to usher

some lower dewpoints into the region as well. 



Boxell



&&



.LONG TERM...

Issued 243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Tomorrow Night through Thursday:



High pressure will sink south into the region late tomorrow

night, setting the stage for what should be a fairly pleasant

Saturday. Highs Saturday will range from the low to mid 80s,

warmest southwest of Madison, with dewpoints in the low to mid

60s. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday

near the state line, as a shortwave ripples through.

Thunderstorm chances then increase area-wide late Saturday night

and especially Sunday as a cold front sharpens to the northwest. 

This looks to pass through the area Sunday night, with an 

associated increase in PoPs through the afternoon and evening 

hours Sunday. Ahead of the front, a very warm and humid day is

expected, with highs Sunday around 90. A Heat Advisory may

eventually be needed for parts of the area, as heat indices will

top out around 100. 



A few days of northwest flow will bring highs back to more

average values, with highs in the low to mid 80s, and overnight

lows in the low 60s. Dewpoints are also looking more tolerable,

with values in the low to mid 60s most days. 



Boxell



&&



.AVIATION...

Issued 243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Convection is starting to develop across the area this

afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected through the

afternoon hours. Later this evening, additional storms will

arrive from the west, likely in the form of a line or broken

line. Strong winds will be possible with both this afternoon and

evening's storms, along with reduced visibility and ceilings. 



Convection will persist into this evening, but will gradually

weaken over time. Showers and low ceilings may persist into

early Friday morning, before more quiet weather arrives for the

day Friday.



Boxell



&&



.MARINE...

Issued 243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Low pressure of 29.8 inches will move across the Iowa and

Minnesota border today, reaching Wisconsin tonight. A stationary 

front will stay parked over the southern end of the lake into this

evening with southerly winds south of the boundary and north to 

northeast winds north of the boundary. As the surface low 

approaches tonight, winds will come around to southwesterly over 

the whole lake and thunderstorms are expected over much of the 

open waters. The low is then expected to pass early Friday 

morning, dragging a cold front over the lake. Winds will become

westerly and northwesterly early Friday, becoming northerly 

Friday night as high pressure of 30.0 inches moves through the

area. 



Winds return to a southeasterly to southerly direction Sunday as

the high moves east of the region. 



Boxell



&&



.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...None.

LM...None.

&&



$$



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