FXUS63 KMPX 261508

AFDMPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1008 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Another round of rain today may be heavy at times, but the

  overall flooding threat is less than it was on Wednesday.



- A conditional threat for severe thunderstorms, including

  tornadoes, exists across far southern Minnesota this

  afternoon.



- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Saturday

  night into Sunday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1005 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across 

southern/eastern MN and western and WI throughout today. A 

Flood Watch has been issued until 06z Friday to account for 

today's potential flood concerns. Some CAM members have hinted 

at a northward shift of the highest QPF so additional counties 

may need to be added to the watch later this afternoon. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Another round of rain and thunderstorms will overspread much of

the region today in response to an upper wave that is currently

producing a convective complex over Nebraska. Most indications

are that some pockets of heavy rain are possible with this

activity as it moves into the forecast area, possibly near or 

over an inch, but overall amounts should not be as high as they 

were on Wednesday. Given that waters from yesterday's rains have

had all night to recede, most areas should be able to handle 

today's rainfall aside from some ponding in the typical high- 

water locations. There could be some amounts closer to 2 

inches, especially across southern Minnesota, but these areas 

generally missed out on the heavier rain earlier. Will therefore

not reissue a flood watch for today.



Another focus for today will be the potential for severe

thunderstorms as a surface low over Nebraska moves to near the

Iowa/Minnesota border this afternoon. The big question is how

far this low tracks, and how far north an attendant warm front

can lift, as the primary severe threat will be focused near and

just south of this boundary. Most global guidance keeps the

front just south of the MN/IA border, which would keep the

general severe threat across Iowa and out of our forecast area.

However there are several higher-resolution models that bring

the front further north into southern Minnesota, with the RAP

bringing it as far north as Mankato/Faribault. How far north

this front makes it will be a critical factor in any severe

threat this afternoon, as rapid destabilization, very low LCL

heights and enhanced helicity near the front could result in a

few supercells capable of tornadoes and strong winds. Right now,

the further south solutions of the global models appear more

likely, thus the SPC slight risk focused across Iowa. It bears

watching though, since a slight northward deviation that other

models are suggesting could bring tornadic weather into 

southern Minnesota this afternoon. 



Friday will be a day to enjoy with dry and very pleasant

conditions. Highs will be in the 70s across the area with

dewpoints only in the lower 60s. Heat and humidity will then

rapidly return to the region on Saturday as dewpoints climb into

the lower 70s and temperatures rise well into the 80s to near

90s. This will lead to a very unstable airmass, and potentially

set the stage for one or more storm complexes to track across

the area late Saturday into Sunday. Severe storms are certainly

possible with this activity given the instability, but timing of

these storms will be a big factor including any stabilizing

effects that may occur from lingering rain and clouds from

previous storms. Therefore this weekend's severe weather chances

are low confidence, but it certainly bears watching.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



IFR ceilings to prevail throughout this duration with rain

resuming late morning through late afternoon. Southern MN into

western WI has a chance at a few TSRA so have included as such

via PROB30 mention. Otherwise, steady showers will be the rule

with visibility into the MVFR range, potentially IFR should

heavier showers move over any given terminal. Winds will remain

under 10kts (outside of TSRA) from the NE to N. 



KMSP...IFR conditions expected through midday, with decent

potential of ceilings rising back to bare MVFR level for the

afternoon push before dropping back down tonight into Friday

morning. Best timing of TSRA at this point looks to be in the

16z-22z timeframe. Confidence not entirely great, especially due

to multiple varying CAM solutions, but cannot rule out the TSRA

possibility so have included the PROB30 mention.



/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 8-12 kts. 

SUN...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.



&&



.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Blue Earth-Faribault-

     Freeborn-Martin-Steele-Waseca.

WI...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Dunleavy

DISCUSSION...DPH

AVIATION...JPC

