FXUS63 KMQT 261944

AFDMQT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

344 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A second round of rain is expected this afternoon into Friday. 

Widespread amounts in excess of 1 inch of rain is ~50% likely with 

locally higher amounts in the west, north central, and east by late 

Friday morning. The WPC Outlook for Excessive Rainfall is a Slight 

Risk (category 2 of 4).



- A brief warmup into the 80s is expected this weekend into Monday, 

with showers and thunderstorms possible (around 50%).



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 139 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Despite a mostly clear KMQT radar at noon eastern today, GOES-East 

Visible imagery shows expansive remnant cloud cover from the first 

round of precipitation that dropped up to an inch and a half of rain 

over the central UP this morning. Aloft, RAP analysis shows 

deamplifying troughing moving over the Plains states today 

supporting a weak surface trough axis extending from Colorado to the 

Michigan Lower Peninsula. This break in the rain is only momentary 

as CAMs show showers pushing into the western UP this afternoon and 

overspreading the UP tonight. With more robust forcing with the 

trough moving overhead, CAMs show a more convective look relative to 

the broader look of things early this morning. If training can occur 

(most CAMs say not much training but a few such as the HRRR do), 

saturated soils combined with longer duration convective 

rainfall rates would lead to flash flooding concerns. Confidence

in this remains low as each CAM looks a bit different in 

regards to the placement of convection and whether it trains or 

not. HREF LPMM 6- hour QPF charts show the potential for 

1.15+"/6hr rates as a worst case scenario, though HREF chances 

of 1+"/6hr rates are only up to 20 percent and mostly over areas

that got less than an inch of rain the previous night, so soils

may not be as saturated. With factors for and opposed to flash 

flooding potential, WPC's outlook for Excessive Rainfall remains

at a Slight Risk (category 2 of 4). Chances of thunderstorms 

are higher tonight than last night with widespread values around

30 percent, though severe weather is not expected as despite 

decent MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg, the shear in the MU layer 

is unidirectional and doesn't have much speed shear.



Rain ends from southwest to northeast throughout the morning hours 

of Friday except for some remaining upslope light rain/drizzle for 

any areas with a NW-facing slope. The remnant light precip and 

clouds will keep high temperatures lower in the north and west 

relative to the clearing in the south and east, with highs ranging 

from around 60 degrees from the Keweenaw through the Copper Country 

compared to near 70 for the south-central and eastern UP.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Friday night, with increasing surface pressure behind the departing 

surface low, ongoing upslope light rain/drizzle will gradually end 

from W to E. Despite this, limited clearing of skies will keep low 

temperatures falling only to around the 60 degree mark except for 

the Keweenaw, which will fall into the mid-50s per NBM guidance. 



An extremely zonal pattern will be over the northern tier of the 

CONUS through the weekend, though looking north, a shortwave trough 

will push into western northern Ontario by 12Z Sunday. This will 

support a 1000-1005mb surface low pressure with a cold front draped 

south of it passing into the UP in the overnight hours of Saturday 

into Sunday. Increasing warm southerly flow ahead of the front will 

allow for a notable warmup with NBM highs near 80. As the front 

itself will be passing after peak heating, instability will be 

present aloft (Euro ensemble suggesting MUCAPE in excess of 2000 

J/kg in the west by 06Z Sunday) but lesser for surace-lifted parcels 

(LREF SBCAPE under 1500 J/kg and beneath a cap in excess of -125 

J/kg of MUCIN). Some shear will be present, but severe weather seems 

unlikely at this time. As the frontal showers continue to push in 

for Sunday, further questions are raised by increased model spread 

in forcing, shear, and instability, though Euro ensemble joint 

probabilities of at least 500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30+ kt of bulk 

shear are in the 40-60% range, so severe weather cannot be ruled 

out, but uncertainty remains high. 



The pattern will begin to amplify once again for the early portion 

of next work week as ridging builds over the Canadian and northern 

US Rockies with troughing developing over the Great Lakes Basin. The 

northwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures close to seasonal, 

but amplification of the troughing is expected to bring more 

periodic chances of precipitation and thunderstorms especially in 

the evening hours with peak heating. This could cause some hazards 

for outdoors plans this week ahead of Independence Day, so planners 

should monitor the forecast for changes as the pattern becomes more 

defined and details emerge. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 139 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Abundant low level moisture associated with disturbance bringing 

SHRA and chances of TSRA this afternoon through tonight will also 

lead to lowered ceilings and vis for much of this TAF period. FG and 

ceilings are beginning to lift at SAW from the airport minimums this 

morning to LIFR now and will continue to trend to MVFR this evening, 

with only a 30 percent chance of seeing a brief period of MVFR. 

Elsewhere, the SCT deck just above 3kft at CMX is expected to fill 

in and descend to MVFR this evening. IWD is already at MVFR and will 

remain such until dusk. Then, as -SHRA expands across the UP, 

ceilings and vis begin to lower, eventually lowering ceilings at all 

sites to IFR and then LIFR. Chances of embedded -TSRA tonight is 

about 30 percent at SAW and IWD but under 15 percent at CMX. Limited 

improvement is expected tomorrow afternoon as moist upsloping flow 

keeps low clouds in the forecast in spite of -SHRA ending.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 343 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Northeasterly wind gusts will increase to 20-25 kt tonight in the 

western arm of Lake Superior with easterly to northeasterly gusts to 

25 kt overspreading much of Lake Superior by early Friday morning. 

Wind gusts fall below 20 kt late Friday morning as low pressure 

sweeps across the region. Wave heights will peak Friday morning in 

the 3-6 ft range, highest north of the Apostle Islands. Waves fall 

below 3 ft by Friday night. Winds and waves then remain mostly calm 

as only weaker pressure systems affect the lake for the weekend into 

next week, though periodic thunderstorms may occasionally be over 

the lake, with the highest chances being late Saturday night through 

Sunday evening. 



&&



.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Upper Michigan...

  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for 

     MIZ014.



Lake Superior...

None.

Lake Michigan...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...GS

LONG TERM...GS

AVIATION...GS

MARINE...GS

