FXUS63 KOAX 261741

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the  

  morning hours across much of the area. A Flood Watch remains 

  in effect for portions of northeast Nebraska and northwestern 

  Iowa. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have already fallen and 

  an additional 1-2 inches is possible this morning.



- Rain chances begin to decrease this afternoon from northwest

  to southeast. A few thunderstorms could linger across portions 

  of the area through the early evening hours.

  

- Temperatures will begin to climb again, into the low to mid

  90s across the area, by Saturday and continuing through the

  weekend. Storms return to the northern portions of the area by

  Saturday evening, a few of which could be severe.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



This morning...



Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this morning

across the area as an upper-level shortwave trough approaches 

the area and interacts with an existing boundary. This has

served as a focus and allowed convection to continue to develop

throughout the evening and into the morning hours. Widespread

rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have fallen across portions of

the area and an additional 1-2 inches are possible through the

morning hours as PW values remain exceptionally high for the 

area. The Flood Watch continues through this afternoon as the

possibility for additional flooding issues will persist through

the morning hours.



Today and Tonight...



Shower and thunderstorm activity should begin to wane by this

afternoon for much of the area that has received the bulk of the

rainfall as the shortwave begins to move off to the east. That 

said, a few lingering storms are possible and any that do 

develop during the afternoon hours could become strong. An 

isolated severe storm also cannot be ruled out. The primary 

concern from these storms would mainly be strong and gusty 

winds. 



Tomorrow...



The aforementioned systems continue to move away from the area

tomorrow and flow becomes nearly zonal. This will allow

temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across

the area. 



Weekend and Beyond...



By Saturday, temperatures will continue to climb into the lower

to mid 90s across the area with heat index values approaching

the upper 90s to around 102 in many locations. By Saturday

evening, a few storms are expected to move back into the

northern parts of the area as a surface trough is forecast to

deepen across central Nebraska serving as a focus for storms to

develop along with the heating of the day. While POPs are not

extremely high at this time, any storms that do develop will be

capable of producing strong winds and severe hail. Parts of the

area are are outlooked for a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for 

severe weather by the SPC. 



By the beginning of the work week, rain chances come down again

with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s for highs

and lows in the 60s.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Patchy MVFR ceilings may occasionally lower flight categories

this afternoon. Otherwise, expect a line of storms to develop

along a boundary draped from southwest to northeast across 

southeastern NE into western IA. Storms could impact KOMA and 

KLNK from 18-00Z before moving off to the southeast. Gusty winds

and heavy rain will be the primary threats. Light winds and 

abundant moisture across the region could lead to the 

development of some patchy fog over parts of northeast Nebraska 

into western Iowa overnight. Expect fog will burn off early 

Friday morning with the rising sun. Winds will remain light, 

under 12 kts outside of thunderstorm activity. 



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...KG

