FXUS63 KOAX 262334

AFDOAX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

634 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered strong to severe storms are possible this evening

  across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. 

  

- Temperatures will begin to climb again, into the low to mid

  90s across the area, by Saturday and continuing through the

  weekend. Heat indices up to 100-105 are possible. 



- Storms return to the northern portions of the area by

  Saturday evening, a few of which could be severe.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Today



Showers and thunderstorms waned briefly this morning as the stronger 

forcing shifted off to our northeast. Temperatures have ramped up 

into the mid 80s this afternoon, with dew points pushing into the 

70s, bolstering instability once more. Storms fired in the vicinity 

of the boundary draped from Beatrice to Mapleton, IA early this 

afternoon. Shear vectors look to be marginal, at 20-30kts, likely 

not sustaining strong updrafts for hail production. However, we 

could see a few strong to severe wind gusts reach the surface this 

afternoon and evening. While these showers and storms could produce 

isolated heavy rainfall amounts, with PWATs up to 2", the CAMs 

indicate these storms should be fairly progressive, mitigating some 

of the flooding potential. Additionally, the heaviest rain this 

evening will likely fall over southeast Nebraska and into southwest 

Iowa, missing the area that received 1"-4" of rain yesterday. 



Storms are expected to clear the forecast area by 10 PM this 

evening, with quiet conditions prevailing through the overnight 

hours. Light winds and abundant moisture across the region could 

lead to the development of some patchy fog over northeast Nebraska 

into western Iowa late tonight into early Friday morning. 



Friday through Sunday...



Zonal flow will overspread the forecast area through the day Friday, 

as southerly winds draw warm moist air back into the region. Highs 

on Friday will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s. A shortwave 

rippling along the NE/SD border could kick off some storms Friday 

afternoon/evening, with the best chance at rain being over northeast 

Nebraska. 



Dry conditions return Friday night into Saturday with highs pushing 

into the 90s, although it will feel more like 100-105 in the shade 

with dewpoints pushing into the low 70s. The warm moist conditions 

indicate the potential for a well-juiced atmosphere with 2000-3000+ 

J/kg of CAPE. Luckily, no forcing mechanisms arrive to set off 

storms until late Saturday night when a surface trough drifts into 

northeast Nebraska. Should these storms develop, they will likely be 

offset from the greatest instability, and shear once again looks to 

be lacking. That being said, these parameters still appear 

sufficient to support at least a Slight Risk for strong to severe 

storms creeping into Northeast Nebraska overnight.



Spotty precipitation could linger into Sunday morning, with renewed 

storm chances developing along a frontal boundary Sunday afternoon 

and evening. Temperatures remain warm through the weekend, with 

highs in the 90s again Sunday and heat indices approaching 100.



Monday and Beyond...

   

High pressure developing over the southern CONUS should help us dry 

out a bit more into early next week, however the occasional ridge 

running shortwave could bring us spotty precip throughout the coming 

week. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal with highs in the 

mid to upper 80s.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions this evening as storms are staying off to the

east. Clearing skies and calming winds will set up a good

environment for fog or haze development. Models are really

highlighting northeast Nebraska for the greatest potential (80%)

for fog overnight tonight. There is some uncertainty in how far

south the fog bank will extend, so expect an 80% chance for fog

at KOFK, and 60% chance at KOMA. Fog shouldn't get as far south

as KLNK, but this site could see some haze develop (with a 20% 

chance for fog). Light and variable winds overnight will 

become predominantly southeasterly Friday morning and increase 

as fog is clearing around 14-15Z. Expect mostly clear skies 

through the remainder of the TAF period



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

IA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...KG

AVIATION...McCoy

