FXUS63 KPAH 261723

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for prolonged

  duration daily peak heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees.

 

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected each

  afternoon will provide only brief, localized relief from the 

  heat wave. Locally torrential downpours, lightning, and some 

  gusty winds will be possible.

 

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the

  weekend into early next week. Torrential downpours, 

  lightning, and some gusty winds will be possible.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 130 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The strong ridge aloft, the driver of our prolonged duration

heat headlines, will be breaking down and dirtying over these

last 48 hours of its life. Isolated to scattered diurnal daily

pcpn chances are the only relief provided from the heat/humidity

buildup, with triple digit heat indices still expected both today

and tmrw. 



By this weekend, height falls are sufficient with some subtle

positive vorticity advection noted within its flow that may

provide a little higher weekend storm chances. These higher pops

will mean a little more in the way of clouds, and a little less

amplified in the way of temps, to finally allow the heat

headlines to dissipate. Dew points stay up in the 70s so we

break the extreme heat but it stays stuffy into next week.

However, a potential fropa by Tuesday could mean a little more 

comfortable air is on tap for the mid week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



SCT-BKN cu field with bases around 4-5kft will dissipate with

sunset and then bubble up again late morning on Friday. Isolated

SHRA/TSRA is possible this afternoon, and went ahead and

included PROB30s for terminals most likely to see development

near them. Additional convection is possible Friday afternoon.

Winds will be out of the southwest 5-8 kts during the day and

become light overnight. There may be some patchy fog again early

Friday morning, particularly at fog prone sites like KMVN. 



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-

     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-

     085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Previous Fcter

AVIATION...SP

