FXUS63 KSGF 262313

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

613 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Daily heat index values in the middle to upper 90s into early

  next week.



- Daily shower and thunderstorm activity into next week, mainly

  isolated to scattered in nature. No all day washouts expected.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A robust cumulus field has formed over the state this afternoon. The 

best area for convection to initiate will be primarily west of 

Highway 65 this afternoon where the best moisture and 

instability is located. These showers/thunderstorms are expected

to remain sub-severe. Though, they could drop some brief heavy 

rainfall as model PWATs are 1.7-1.8" and showers from the 

previous past few days have dropped a quick 0.25-0.50". As

daylight heating diminishes, so will our rain chances. 



Tonight, expect partly cloudy skies as the remnants of an MCS

start to push through by early Friday morning. Lows will be warm

in the upper 60s to lower 70s.



There's a 50-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday 

morning north of I-44 as what's left of the MCS pushes through 

our area. As the morning continues and the boundary pushes

south, rain chances decrease slightly. Areas south of I-44 have

a 40-60% chance of seeing rain. Expect rainfall to be a bit more

widespread tomorrow than it will be today with rainfall amounts

staying under 1 inch. With clouds and rain lingering around the

area tomorrow, highs will be a bit cooler in the mid 80s.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The long term forecast is a persistence forecast. Shortwave 

energy will continue to bring daily rain chances into the middle

of next week, with the greatest chances in the 

afternoons/evenings. Look for 40-50% chances on Saturday, 30-60%

Sunday and Monday, and 20-30% Tuesday and Wednesday.



Temperatures through this period will be susceptible to changes

due to convective trends, but generally looking at highs in the

mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Look

for daily heat index values in the mid to upper 90s through at

least Monday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



For the 00z TAFS, will need to monitor broken area of convection

to our west for potentially moving into JLN this evening.

However, we should see instability begin to diminish with the

loss of daytime heating and it would be moving into a less

favorable air mass, so for now, we left it out of the 00z TAFS

for this evening. We do have some prob30's for convection and

MVFR conditions in the overnight period at JLN and during the 

afternoon at SGF/BBG, but otherwise expecting VFR conditions.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Soria

LONG TERM...Soria

AVIATION...Lindenberg

