FXUS63 KTOP 261859

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

159 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. A few 

instances of damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall possible, but 

severe weather potential is low overall.



- Warm and humid through Sunday. Sunday night cold front brings less 

humid and slightly cooler weather for next week.



- Best rain and storm chances (50-70%) Sunday night with the

  cold front, otherwise small (10-30%) pop-up storm chances most

  afternoons.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Surface observations this afternoon depict a weak area of low 

pressure across eastern Nebraska, with a weakening cold front 

extending southwest into central Kansas. Satellite observations are 

showing several bands of increasingly agitated cumulus ahead of and 

parallel to the front. Given a moist and mostly uncapped airmass, 

continued heating over the next hour or two should allow scattered 

thunderstorms to develop. Forcing does remain quite weak though, 

keeping confidence on the low end with regard to exact timing and 

coverage of convection. Regardless, the environment continues to be 

a very typical summer-time setup. Effective shear is weak, at less 

than 15 kts, instability is moderate (2000-2500 J/kg), and moisture 

content is high (PWAT 1.8-2.0"). Damaging winds with gusts up to 

around 60 mph will be the main severe hazard, though some small hail 

could occur with initial updrafts. Otherwise, as storms grow 

upscale, there could be some isolated areas that pick up a quick few 

inches of rain with a low-end flash flood risk. Generally though, 

the more scattered nature of convection and a slow but steady 

eastward progression will keep accumulations for most places around 

or below one inch. Some places in north-central KS likely won't see 

anything. At any rate, any heavier storms will tend to clear east-

central KS by late evening, though a few weaker showers may linger 

overnight.



Whatever weak boundary that still exists by tomorrow will lift back 

north of the area as a broad zonal jet stream reestablishes itself 

over the Northern Plains. This will keep warm and humid conditions 

in place through the weekend. Highs climb into the 90s, lows stay in 

the 70s, with heat indices approaching 100. Given a continued moist 

airmass with only very weak CIN, can't rule out an isolated shower 

or storm across much of the weekend. However without any front or 

upper shortwave to encourage ascent, most places will remain dry 

through Sunday afternoon.



By Sunday evening and overnight, a front will push southeast across 

the area as an upper trough begins to amplify over the Great Lakes. 

This will increase shower/storm chances area-wide. Behind the front, 

slightly cooler and drier air will work in, with dewpoints dropping 

into the low/mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures look to 

be near seasonal averages, in the upper 80s, with low temperatures 

in the mid 60s slightly below average. Precipitation chances look 

lower into mid-week behind the front, though in a typical summer 

pattern like this it is difficult to discount PoPs altogether this 

far out.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Confidence is low on the exact timing and coverage of 

scattered thunderstorms that will develop this afternoon and 

evening, so have just left a Prob30 group at the main TAF sites. Any 

storms should move east of KTOP/KFOE by mid to late evening though. 

Ceilings remain VFR, with this afternoon's gustier south winds 

weakening this evening.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Reese

AVIATION...Reese

