FXUS64 KAMA 261740

AFDAMA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Amarillo TX

1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025



-Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the coming

 week, with decreased chances following for the weekended.



-Repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will result in

 localized flooding chances.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today through Friday night)

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Rain showers and thunderstorms continue to be present on radar 

across the Panhandles tonight. This activity is likely to hold 

through the overnight with model agreement seeing the present low 

pressure system to our west and strong high pressure to our east. 

The placement of these two systems has allow for a monsoon like 

presence to take hold over much of New Mexico and the western 

portions of the southern plains. As it stand this set up has seen 

high amount of moisture present across the Western Panhandles with

latest models and 00Z sounding suggesting PWAT values reaching 

around 1.25 to 1.5 inch mark. This moisture combined with some 

slight instability and orographic lift from the mountains to our 

west should keep chances of showers and thunderstorms going for at

least another day for the Panhandles. However, latest CAMs are 

still a bit mixed on severe potential for this coming afternoon. 

Currently both the RAP and Namnest have seeing some higher MLCAPE

amount present in the northwest with enough effective bulk shear 

to keep things more organized. On the other hand, the HRRR is not 

as enthusiastic with both its CAPE and shear values on the lower 

end. Regardless the present high PWAT values could still lead to 

moderate to heavy rainfall in some of these stronger storms, which

could lead to localized flash flooding. 



Moving into Friday, model agreement does see the present high

pressure system start to shift towards the east. This shift will

mark the beginning of the end for our monsoonal setup with many of

the models expecting the trough to our finally breaking down as

well. Despite this break down, low chances for showers (10 to 20%)

still exist for the afternoon given the still present moisture and

weak instability. However, these chance may be fleeting as most

models see a more zonal pattern take over for the overnight hours. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through Wednesday)

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



As we progress into the weekend and next week, model agreement 

sees the strong upper-level high pressure forced off into the 

southeastern coast, which in turn allows for the present trough to

break down and finally pass through. This transition of the 

upper- level pattern does look to put the Panhandles under a more 

zonal upper-level flow for the weekend. This more zonal flow will 

help keep activity more conditional as we see the higher moisture 

content start to shift and concentrate to our east once again. 

Moving into next week, has model agreement seeing the Panhandles 

under a very stagnate upper-level pattern with our general 

steering flow becoming very weak for much of the holiday week. 

Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you feel, this 

stagnate pattern does not necessarily mean we will dry out as 

potential is present to see weak disturbances push in and create 

pop-up thunderstorms each afternoon all the way into Thursday. At 

this time these chances range anywhere from 20 to 40% across the 

entire Panhandles, with best currently hold for Monday. Meanwhile,

severe potential still possible despite present patterns 

suggesting very weak wind shear expected over next week. 

Regardless, the potential for thunderstorms and showers will help 

keep temperatures down in this stagnate pattern with latest 

calling for highs in the80s to low 90s clear into Thursday. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24

hours. Winds will be out of the south for the most part in the 10

to 15 kt range. PROB30s are set for mainly the 20z-04z time period

at the sites, as we do expect afternoon scattered storms to pop

around the Panhandles, but confidence on any timing is low. Will

amend as necessary for storms that look to impact the TAF sites. 



Weber



&&



.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

OK...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...11

LONG TERM....11

AVIATION...89

