FXUS64 KAMA 262331

AFDAMA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Amarillo TX

631 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



-Showers and storms possible each day for the majority of the

forecast period.  



-Strong to Severe storms this afternoon and evening. Main focus

 with storms will be heavy rain, and some localized flooding

 concerns, but storm may be strong enough to get a 60 mph wind

 gust. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Friday night)

Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Overall upper level flow now moving more out of the southwest.

Today we have a shortwave embedded in that flow which will give a

bit more enhancement and assist a little more with storm motion.

PWAT's still very high 1.32" on the 18z sounding, and overall 

DCAPE less than 1000 J/kg is on the lower side, but given the 

storm motion expected today to be in the 15 to 20 mph range, there

might just be enough energy to get a severe wind gust out of 

things. Overall, the hail threat should be low given the more 

tropical environment that we are in. On the flip side, we've had a

lot of low level moisture and our dewpoints remain in the 60s for

the most part, supporting higher CAPE values as of late, and 

storms have been over-performing on both intensity and coverage 

versus some of the CAM's. 18z sounding has over 3000 J/kg of SB

CAPE with 1700 ML CAPE, give these numbers we could have stronger

updrafts. Shear is pretty weak, around 15 to 20 kts, which is

working against storm organization. So overall, today will have

scattered storms that will produce heavy rain (1-2" per hour), and

they may manage to be pulse severe (short lived) as well, with

winds that could get up to 60 mph. Given the high CAPE values,

will not rule out hail, but very low confidence <5% that we manage

to get 1" hail. Just too much melting due to the moist

environment, and warmer air in general aloft, but will not

completely rule it out. Storms should diminish this evening with

the loss of daytime heating.  



Tomorrow still holds a high degree of uncertainty as we are in a

pretty disorganized weather pattern aloft and a high attempting to

build over the Four Corners. CAM's are not to excited with

afternoon storms, but still some models recently trying to show 

some more scattered storms. With no added dynamics other than 

just differential heating to get storms going, the expectation is 

that storms tomorrow will just be heavy rain producers and 

possibly would be a flood threat if they're long lived, with slow 

storm motion. Again, still a high level of uncertainty as several 

models don't want to convect and keep the atmosphere stable. 



Weber



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The weekend continues to be up in the air. Saturday will be in a

similar situation as Friday, when it comes to storm coverage. But

it does appear that Saturday would have the lowest chance of rain,

but that still doesn't rule out showers or storms. Come Sunday we

have ample moisture return to the Panhandles and a system coming

down off the Rockies and it looks like a lot of our convection we

get will be triggered off the Rockies and track east over the

Panhandles Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday we'll continue

to have showers and storms each day as this moisture continues to

track over the Panhandles, and we may even have some disturbances

to enhance the storm potential . 



Weber



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025





VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24

hours. Exception will be over the next few hours as we have

scattered storms around the Panhandles. So brief MVFR/IFR

conditions will be possible through about 4z. Will amend as 

necessary for storms that look to impact the TAF sites. Overall,  

winds will be out of the south for the most part in the 10 to 15 

kt range. 



Weber



&&



.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

OK...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...89

LONG TERM....89

AVIATION...89

