FXUS64 KBMX 261742

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025

  

- Medium chance of heat indices reaching 100 degrees and air

  temperatures exceeding 92 degrees today for the northwest half 

  of Central Alabama. 

 

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms for the 

  afternoon and evening. The main risk is damaging winds. There is

  also a level 1 out of 5 risk of severe storms for Friday 

  afternoon and evening across the eastern half of Central 

  Alabama.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025



We've had a calm, cloudy morning in the wake of the overnight 

thunderstorm activity. A residual mesoscale convective vortex is 

rotating westward from Georgia currently, which will enter Alabama 

this afternoon. With daytime heating, even held down a degree or two 

from the previous forecast with existing cloud cover, we expect 

development of showers and thunderstorms once again this afternoon. 

Damaging winds will be the primary threat with any severe storm that 

develops, and the entire area remains under a Marginal risk this 

evening. Development is a little slower today, but it should get 

going by 3 PM or so and continue through the evening.



A Heat Advisory continues through 7 PM this evening. Further 

advisories aren't overly likely through the weekend. However, some 

areas of western Central Alabama near the Mississippi line will be 

close to advisory criteria tomorrow, and one may be warranted for 

just a few counties.



More shower and thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday. 

Although chances are elevated across the entire area, some guidance 

has picked up on the possibility of more sea breeze activity moving 

northward from South Alabama, similar to last night. A Marginal risk 

for severe weather is currently in place across the eastern half of 

Central Alabama for Friday afternoon and evening.



12



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday night through next Wednesday)

Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025



The extended continues to look warm and wet and opposed to hot and 

dry, as we've seen earlier this week. Highs each day will be in the 

upper 80s to low 90s, with heat index values staying in the upper 

90s to low 100s. Little change was made to the previous forecast, 

with only tweaks to temperatures and rain chances.



12



Previous long-term discussion:

(Saturday through next Wednesday) 

Issued at 110 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025



The extended pattern continues to look wet through the first

couple of days of July. Much of this will be diurnally driven, but

may start early each day more like the 2 to 3 pm time frame. The 

good news there is that temperatures will not be as stifling as 

right now, however the humidity will still be quite high. We

really will be back into the true summertime pattern with a good

chance of hit and miss showers and storms. There is actually quite

high agreement with the longer range models. There is a good

consensus that the wettest day will be Tuesday as a front tries to

work closer to the region before stalling out over the Southeast

on Wednesday. Hopefully this trend will continue as we get closer

to the end of next week. 



16



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025



Cloud cover is becoming thicker across eastern Central Alabama, 

pushing westward across the state. Shower or thunderstorm activity 

is possible late afternoon into the evening, so have maintained 

PROB30 during that timeframe. Otherwise, ceilings should generally 

stay VFR through the evening. Patchy fog or low clouds may develop 

by early tomorrow morning. Ceilings and vis may fall to IFR before 

conditions improve after 12z.



NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until 

further notice due to comms issues.



Also, AMD NOT SKED at BHM due to issues with hourly METARS.



12



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Warm, cloudy conditions are expected this afternoon with RH 

values mainly falling into the 50 to 60 percent range. Scattered 

showers and storms are forecast this afternoon and evening with 

some storms capable of producing high winds. Moisture and rain 

chances will increase for Friday on through the weekend.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     69  91  69  90 /  30  60  30  60 

Anniston    70  89  71  87 /  40  60  30  60 

Birmingham  71  90  71  90 /  30  50  20  50 

Tuscaloosa  72  90  72  90 /  20  50  20  50 

Calera      71  90  71  89 /  30  50  20  50 

Auburn      71  89  71  87 /  30  50  30  60 

Montgomery  71  91  71  89 /  30  60  20  60 

Troy        69  91  69  89 /  30  60  30  60 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following 

counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-

Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-

Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...12

LONG TERM....12

AVIATION...12

