FXUS64 KBRO 261720

AFDBRO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Brownsville TX

1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Friday night)

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The latest radar and satellite imagery depict isolated to

scattered activity along the immediate coast and Gulf waters this

afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should

develop over the next few hours as increasing diurnal instability

interacts with high moisture content transported well established

low level southeasterly flow. Similar to previous days, any

impacts will be limited to brief, heavy rainfall, lightning, and

gusty winds to around 40 MPH. With the loss of daytime heating,

activity should wane by the evening hours. 



Expect another mild night tonight and tomorrow night with lows in

the 70s. As winds become light, some patchy fog may develop 

across portions of the region late tonight into early tomorrow 

morning, but should quickly burn off by tomorrow morning. 

Otherwise, expect near to slightly above normal temperatures 

across Deep South Texas with heat index values ranging from 

100-106 degrees this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Low

precipitation chances continue on Friday, but look to remain

around or below 20% as a plume of Saharan dust/slightly drier 

begins to filter in from the east. This may result in some hazy

skies late in the day on Friday.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through next Thursday)

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Near normal temperatures and daily low to medium (20-60%) 

precipitation chances continue through next week. Most of the 

region should remain rain-free on Saturday, with the exception 

being along the immediate coast and Gulf waters. However, still 

expecting more limited coverage and development as the plume of 

Saharan dust translates west/northwest. An uptick in rain chances 

(around 40-60%) return on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave 

approaches the region. Most activity should remain diurnally- 

driven with any thunderstorms that develop being capable of gusty 

winds, lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Heading into the

first few days of July, precipitation chances continue but should

be lower (around 20-30%) each day.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR and southeasterly winds will continue through the forecast 

period at all TAF sites. Isolated to scattered convection may

develop near the terminals once again this afternoon. If activity

develops near/over the terminals, the main impacts will be brief

heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. Otherwise, activity

should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Some patchy fog

may develop once again late tonight into early tomorrow morning,

but confidence at this time is too low to warrant a mention in the

TAF at this time.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through the 

forecast period with low to moderate seas and light to moderate 

southeast winds. Occasional gusts upwards cannot be ruled out 

during the afternoon hours due to a locally enhanced pressure 

gradient. Otherwise, daily chances for isolated to scattered 

showers and thunderstorms will continue through early next week.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

BROWNSVILLE             77  92  78  92 /   0  10  10  20 

HARLINGEN               73  94  75  93 /   0  10   0  20 

MCALLEN                 77  97  77  97 /   0  10   0  10 

RIO GRANDE CITY         74  95  76  95 /   0  10   0  10 

SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  87  79  87 /  10  10  10  20 

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  91  77  91 /   0  10  10  20 



&&



.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...22-Garcia

LONG TERM....22-Garcia

AVIATION...22-Garcia

