FXUS64 KEWX 261749 CCA

AFDEWX



Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX

1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Warm conditions will continue through the weekend and into next

  week.



- Isolated showers and storms today, Friday, and Sunday, mainly 

  Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor.



- Light concentrations of Saharan dust arriving over the weekend and

  increasing into early to mid next week, bringing hazy conditions 

  to the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Friday night)

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Widely scattered showers and storms have developed out of the 

Coastal Plains into southeast Texas midday. Isolated coverage of 

showers and storms is expected to develop farther inland toward the 

I-35 corridor and eastern Hill Country through the afternoon hours, 

assisted with daytime heating and mesoscale forcing along outflow 

boundaries. The loss of diurnal heating around and after sunset will 

lead to convection dissipating. Precipitable water values will 

decrease slightly into Friday, leading to only 10-20% chances for 

isolated, daytime showers and storms, primarily over the Coastal 

Plains.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Our first plume of seasonal Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust is forecast 

to arrive in waves, initially light concentrations over the weekend 

and increasing in concentrating Monday through Wednesday. Low and 

mid level flow trajectories should keep the higher concentrations of

dust, which is mainly aloft, confined to the Coastal Plains, I-35 

corridor and Hill Country. The main noticeable impacts will be a more

hazy, milky appearance to the sky during the day and slightly more 

vibrant sunsets. 



There is a surge of high precipitable water values, just ahead of 

the leading edge of the higher dust concentrations, that is forecast 

to move out of the Bay of Campeche and into the the area late 

Saturday night through Sunday. There is a signal in a few of the 

models of an uptick in diurnally driven showers and storms across 

the Coastal Plains into the I-35 corridor on Sunday, isolated to 

widely scattered in coverage. This moisture could pool farther west 

along the Rio Grande on Monday, with the increase in the SAL dust 

resulting in a drier conditions east. Otherwise, warm conditions 

will continue through the weekend and into next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions are expected across the I-35 corridor sites as well 

as for KDRT through the overnight hours. Southerly wind flow ranging 

from 6 to 14 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots especially 

for KDRT. There is a slight chance (10 percent or less for the most 

part) for showers and thunderstorm activity across the I-35 corridor 

between 19Z to 23Z. With such low probabilities, decided not to use 

a PROB30, however, mentioning here for awareness. Otherwise, winds 

decrease to less than 10 knots late this evening into the overnight 

hours while blowing from the south. MVFR cigs are forecasted for the 

I-35 terminals starting around 09Z and lingering through 15Z Friday. 

VFR cigs return for the I-35 sites after 15Z.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Austin Camp Mabry              94  74  96  73 /  30  10   0   0 

Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  72  96  72 /  30  10   0   0 

New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  95  73 /  30  10   0   0 

Burnet Muni Airport            92  73  94  73 /  20   0   0   0 

Del Rio Intl Airport           99  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0 

Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  95  73 /  20   0   0   0 

Hondo Muni Airport             93  72  93  72 /  10   0   0   0 

San Marcos Muni Airport        92  72  94  72 /  40  10   0   0 

La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  73  93  73 /  40  10  10   0 

San Antonio Intl Airport       93  75  93  74 /  20  10   0   0 

Stinson Muni Airport           95  74  95  73 /  20  10   0   0 



&&



.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



Short-Term...76

Long-Term...76

Aviation...17

