FXUS64 KFWD 261623

AFDFWD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX

1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New Short Term, Aviation... 



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,

  mainly along and east of I-35. 



- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend.



- Additional, low rain chances arrive early to mid next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM... /NEW/

/Today through Friday Night/



Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a fairly expansive

cumulus field throughout Central and North Texas with a few

scattered showers east of I-35. GOES-19 estimated precipitable

water shows a narrow swath of values between 1.9 and 2.1 inches 

across the eastern half of the CWA. This is in line with the 1.77

inches sampled on the 12Z FWD sounding which was already in the

95th percentile for this time of year. Also noted on the morning

sounding was a notable lack of wind through the troposphere and

minimal capping. This all suggests that any areas of focused

differential heating or enhanced low level convergence will lead

to slow moving pop up showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

This is most likely to occur across the southeast quarter of the

CWA (along and east of I-35 and south of I-20), with coverage

tapering off farther north and west. We've nudged PoPs upward a

bit through the afternoon. The lack of wind aloft and tall skinny

CAPE will lead to a low threat for severe weather with only the

most robust updrafts posing a localized downburst wind threat due

to precipitation loading effects. Otherwise, outside of any

isolated convection, partly cloudy skies and warm and humid

conditions will prevail with highs in the lower 90s.



Mid level ridging from the east will become slightly more

pronounced on Friday with a notable drop in PW values expected.

This should limit coverage of any scattered showers to 10% or less

on Friday afternoon. We'll also likely see some slightly better

coverage across our far north/northwest counties where more

pronounced troughing will persist, but most areas will remain dry.

Highs on Friday will tick upward a degree or two thanks to the

influence of the ridging spreading in from the east.



Dunn



&&



.LONG TERM... /Issued 319 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/

/Friday Night Onward/



The axis of a mid/upper ridge will meander over North and Central

Texas this weekend, shutting down most convective attempts due to

the persistent subsidence aloft. The exceptions may be along the 

Red River and across Central Texas where weak disturbances 

rotating around the ridge may be enough to generate a few isolated

showers or storms. Otherwise seasonably hot weather will be the 

main story as high temperatures climb into the mid and upper 90s. 

Heat index values will max out in triple digits, but should remain

below Heat Advisory criteria through Sunday.



Slightly better rain chances will begin Monday or Tuesday as a 

shortwave drops southeast through the Plains and pushes a weak 

cold front south across the Red River. Monday's rain chances will 

be mostly in Oklahoma, but will spread slowly south into the Red 

River counties along the southward sagging surface boundary. The 

front should stall somewhere between I-20 and the Red River on 

Tuesday, serving as a focus for thunderstorm development Tuesday 

and Wednesday afternoons. Widespread storms are unlikely due to 

the 590+ decameter 500mb heights overhead, so will keep POPs 

generally in the 20 to 40 percent range for now, and mostly along 

and north of I-20. Moisture pooling and compressional warming 

south of the front may finally push Central Texas counties to Heat

Advisory criteria starting Tuesday or Wednesday. 



The front will become even more diffuse while lifting to the north

next Thursday, ending rain chances for all but perhaps the RedRiver counties. The ridge will re-intensify on Friday, likely

shutting convection down completely in time for July 4th

activities. It's still too soon to give the all-clear, but mid

range guidance at the moment continues to indicate a typical hot

and rain-free 4th.



30



&&



.AVIATION... /NEW/

/18Z TAFs/



Scattered cumulus has resulted in intermittent MVFR cigs primarily

along and east of I-35 this morning but cigs have gradually

climbed and are now around 2500 ft. They should continue to

scatter and become VFR by midday with south winds 10-15 kt. There

will be some scattered showers and perhaps a few storms again

through this afternoon with areas southeast of the D10 airspace

having the best chances to see convective activity. We'll keep any

mention of SHRA/TS out of the current TAFs except for Waco and

continue to monitor through the early afternoon.



Outside of any isolated convection, VFR will prevail with south

winds around 10 kt through Friday.



Dunn



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  76  94  77  95 /  10   5   5   0   5 

Waco                90  73  93  74  94 /  20   5   5   0   0 

Paris               90  73  91  74  92 /  10   5  10   0   5 

Denton              92  74  94  76  95 /  10   5  10   0   5 

McKinney            91  74  93  76  95 /  10   5  10   0   5 

Dallas              92  77  95  78  96 /  20   5   5   0   5 

Terrell             91  73  93  74  94 /  20   5   5   0   5 

Corsicana           91  74  93  75  94 /  30   5   5   0   5 

Temple              91  72  93  73  95 /  20   5   5   0   5 

Mineral Wells       94  74  95  74  97 /  10   5   5   0   5 



&&



.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$

