FXUS64 KFWD 261855

AFDFWD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX

155 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New Long Term... 



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly along

  and east of I-35 through early evening.



- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend.



- Low afternoon rain chances return early to mid next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/

/Today through Friday Night/



Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a fairly expansive

cumulus field throughout Central and North Texas with a few

scattered showers east of I-35. GOES-19 estimated precipitable

water shows a narrow swath of values between 1.9 and 2.1 inches 

across the eastern half of the CWA. This is in line with the 1.77

inches sampled on the 12Z FWD sounding which was already in the

95th percentile for this time of year. Also noted on the morning

sounding was a notable lack of wind through the troposphere and

minimal capping. This all suggests that any areas of focused

differential heating or enhanced low level convergence will lead

to slow moving pop up showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

This is most likely to occur across the southeast quarter of the

CWA (along and east of I-35 and south of I-20), with coverage

tapering off farther north and west. We've nudged PoPs upward a

bit through the afternoon. The lack of wind aloft and tall skinny

CAPE will lead to a low threat for severe weather with only the

most robust updrafts posing a localized downburst wind threat due

to precipitation loading effects. Otherwise, outside of any

isolated convection, partly cloudy skies and warm and humid

conditions will prevail with highs in the lower 90s.



Mid level ridging from the east will become slightly more

pronounced on Friday with a notable drop in PW values expected.

This should limit coverage of any scattered showers to 10% or less

on Friday afternoon. We'll also likely see some slightly better

coverage across our far north/northwest counties where more

pronounced troughing will persist, but most areas will remain dry.

Highs on Friday will tick upward a degree or two thanks to the

influence of the ridging spreading in from the east.



Dunn



&&



.LONG TERM... /NEW/

/Saturday through Wednesday/



Mid level ridging will continue to re-position itself westward

across parts of the Southern Plains this weekend resulting in

increasing subsidence and near zero rain chances. An associated

drop in total atmospheric moisture content will also allow

temperatures to climb over the weekend with Sunday likely being

the warmest day. Highs will top out in the upper 90s to near 100

degrees across the region. By early next week, this ridging will

be squashed a bit by a trough moving through the Central Plains. A

weak frontal boundary will sag south through Oklahoma and become a

focus for thunderstorm development each afternoon through the

middle of the week. While the best chances for storms will

generally remain to our north, outflow boundaries will likely be

numerous and should focus redevelopment farther south into North

Texas, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition, the

weakness in the ridge should also allow for an uptick in sea

breeze convection across our southeast counties. We'll keep PoPs

in the 20-30% range through this period with the highest coverage

north of I-20. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees above

normal through the middle of next week.



Dunn



&&



.AVIATION... /Issued 1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/

/18Z TAFs/



Scattered cumulus has resulted in intermittent MVFR cigs primarily

along and east of I-35 this morning but cigs have gradually

climbed and are now around 2500 ft. They should continue to

scatter and become VFR by midday with south winds 10-15 kt. There

will be some scattered showers and perhaps a few storms again

through this afternoon with areas southeast of the D10 airspace

having the best chances to see convective activity. We'll keep any

mention of SHRA/TS out of the current TAFs except for Waco and

continue to monitor through the early afternoon.



Outside of any isolated convection, VFR will prevail with south

winds around 10 kt through Friday.



Dunn



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  94  77  96  78 /   5   5   0   0   0 

Waco                73  93  74  94  75 /   5   5   0   0   0 

Paris               73  91  74  92  74 /   5  10   0   5   0 

Denton              74  94  76  96  76 /   5  10   0   0   0 

McKinney            74  93  76  95  76 /   5  10   0   0   0 

Dallas              77  95  78  96  79 /   5   5   0   0   0 

Terrell             73  93  74  94  75 /   5   5   0   0   0 

Corsicana           74  93  75  94  76 /   5   5   0   0   0 

Temple              72  93  73  94  73 /   5   5   0   0   0 

Mineral Wells       74  95  74  97  76 /   5   5   0   0   0 



&&



.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$

