FXUS64 KFWD 262328

AFDFWD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Fort Worth TX

628 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New Short Term, Aviation... 



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated showers and thunderstorms (20-30% chance) will 

  continue across Central and East-Central Texas through this 

  evening.



- A stray shower or thunderstorm (15-25% chance) will be possible

  near the Red River Friday afternoon and evening.



- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend into

  next week with highs in the mid and upper 90s.





&&



.SHORT TERM... /NEW/

/Through Friday Night/



...This Evening and Tonight...



Isolated diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms (20-30%

chance) will continue across portions of Central and East-Central

Texas through this evening. While no severe weather is expected,

the strongest storms will have the potential for small hail and

gusty winds. Any storms that can persist into the evening are

expected to dissipate by 9 PM, giving way to a warm and mild

summer night with lows in the low and mid 70s.





...Friday and Friday Night...



With higher heights building into the region, weak synoptic scale

subsidence should by and large suppress showers and thunderstorms

associated with the diurnal heating cycle. The one exception will

be near the Red River valley, where a weak surface boundary in 

southern Oklahoma may provide enough forcing for ascent to 

initiate a stray shower or thunderstorm (15-25% chance) during the

afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the 

low and mid 90s. Friday night should be clear and warm, with 

temperatures dropping again into the low and mid 70s.





Darrah



&&



.LONG TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/

/Saturday through Wednesday/



Mid level ridging will continue to re-position itself westward

across parts of the Southern Plains this weekend resulting in

increasing subsidence and near zero rain chances. An associated

drop in total atmospheric moisture content will also allow

temperatures to climb over the weekend with Sunday likely being

the warmest day. Highs will top out in the upper 90s to near 100

degrees across the region. By early next week, this ridging will

be squashed a bit by a trough moving through the Central Plains. A

weak frontal boundary will sag south through Oklahoma and become a

focus for thunderstorm development each afternoon through the

middle of the week. While the best chances for storms will

generally remain to our north, outflow boundaries will likely be

numerous and should focus redevelopment farther south into North

Texas, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition, the

weakness in the ridge should also allow for an uptick in sea

breeze convection across our southeast counties. We'll keep PoPs

in the 20-30% range through this period with the highest coverage

north of I-20. Afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees above

normal through the middle of next week.



Dunn



&&



.AVIATION... /NEW/

/00Z Friday through 06Z Saturday/



Recent short term guidance is increasingly pessimistic on a deck

of MVFR clouds (BKN/OVC 021-030) developing across central Texas

between 11Z and 16Z Friday. As such, have removed from the KACT

TAF for now, as chances of MVFR cigs at the terminal have dropped

to 20-30% during the aforementioned time frame.



Darrah



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  93  77  96  78 /  10   5   0   0   0 

Waco                74  92  74  94  75 /  20   5   0   0   0 

Paris               73  89  74  92  74 /  10  20   0   5   0 

Denton              76  92  77  96  76 /  10  10   0   0   0 

McKinney            75  91  76  95  76 /  10  10   0   0   0 

Dallas              75  93  77  96  79 /10   5   0   0   0 

Terrell             73  90  74  94  75 /  10  10   0   0   0 

Corsicana           74  92  75  94  76 /  20  10   0   0   0 

Temple              73  93  73  94  73 /  20   5   0   0   0 

Mineral Wells       74  93  74  97  76 /  10  10   0   0   0 



&&



.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$

