FXUS64 KHGX 261801

AFDHGX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

101 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Chances for showers and storms each day throughout the forecast,

  mainly during the daytime. Lowest PoPs on Friday, with the 

  greatest on Sunday. 



- Plume of Saharan dust moves in Saturday evening/Sunday, bringing

  hazy-white skies throughout portions of next week. 



- Temperatures slowly trend upwards, reaching the mid/upper 90s

  with triple digit heat indices by next week.



03



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Conditions today should be overall less active than days prior. 

Broad ridging remains situated across the Southern Plains to the 

Eastern sea board with weak embedded lows/disturbances aloft. Deep

PWs of 2.0 inches or more remain situated over the region, though

forcing remains lackluster. Still, scattered showers and a few 

stray thunderstorms are ongoing, mainly west of Houston. CAMs are 

not capturing this activity very well, and while the hourly HRRR 

runs are starting to catch up, it still seems fixated on shifting 

this activity near the metro/coastline this afternoon, similar to 

that of typical summertime sea-breeze convection. While some 

isolated activity has developed in these areas, the highest rain

chances & coverage will likely stay west of I-45 today, where the

main instability axis coincides with sfc theta E advection and 

moisture convergence. Highs this afternoon will generally be in 

the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the 70s to lower

80s.



Friday is shaping up to be a similar story as broad ridging

continues to dominate the southern CONUS, though with notably 

lower PoPs. Larger pattern changes begin on Saturday as 500mb 

heights within the ridge creep upwards slightly, remaining near 

588-592dam, along with the main ridge axis shifting from the east 

coast to the ArkLaTex area. Deep PWs and some weaker embedded 

disturbances could bring some showers and thunderstorms, though 

activity will generally scattered to isolated. A plume of Saharan

dust will move into SE Texas Saturday evening, bringing hazy-

white skies through late next week as this airmass remains in 

place. Coinciding with the rising midlevel heights, 850mb 

temperatures will also gradually rise from 16-19C on Friday to 

18-22C early next week. The Saharan dust could modify temps 

downward, though only by a slight amount and primarily on Sunday 

and Monday when the Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness is greatest. 

Otherwise, temperatures trend upward with highs reaching the upper

80s/upper 90s next week with heat indices in the triple digits.



03



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



With the exception of scattered tstms today, VFR conditions and 

light winds will prevail. Precip will taper off in the early

evening with the loss of heating. Locations north of the metro

area, mainly CLL and possibly UTS, might see some late night MVFR

stratus and patchy fog development heading into Fri morning. 47



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (mostly 10 to 15 knots) 

and seas of 2 to 5 feet will prevail over the next several days. 

Scattered showers and storms will be possible daily, with chances 

lowest on Friday. A plume of of Saharan dust moves over the region 

Saturday evening/Sunday. As this drier Saharan airmass remains in

place, lower rain chances and higher temperatures can be expected

throughout next week. Rip current risk across the Gulf beaches 

will generally be moderate throughout the forecast period.



03 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)	  72  92  7393 /  20  10   0  10 

Houston (IAH)			  74  91  76  92 /  20  30   0  30 

Galveston (GLS)			  81  89  82  89 /  10  20  10  30 



&&



.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...03

AVIATION...47

MARINE...03

