FXUS64 KLCH 261951

AFDLCH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lake Charles LA

251 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Nearby upper level ridge will again bring about slightly lower

  rain chances tomorrow, while the typical summer heat persists

  with max afternoon heat index values from 96 to 105 degrees.



- From the weekend into early next week, the forecast area will 

  be between a ridge to the west and trough to the east. Expect 

  typical summertime weather with a daily chance of mainly 

  afternoon showers and thunderstorms to go along with the usual 

  hot and humid conditions. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Saturday night)

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Another typical summertime afternoon is ongoing across the CWA,

with area radar showing isolated convection mainly across SE TX 

at this time, while temperatures range from the upper 80s to lower

90s. Surface/upper air analysis shows low to mid-level ridging

dominating the Southern Plains/SErn CONUS, while a mid/upper level

disturbance is noted over FL/GA. 18Z LCH sounding shows 4302 J/kg

of MUCAPE, very light winds throughout the column, and a PWAT of 

1.55" which is below the daily mean according to SPC climo. While 

not a dry climate by any means, it's clear that high pressure is 

overhead. Regardless, with at least modest moisture and plenty of 

instability available, convection has been able to blossom across

SE TX this afternoon. CAMs haven't handled this development very 

well however, the hourly HRRR is beginning to get a handle on it, 

and latest runs shows additional isolated development across south

LA through the next few hours. Otherwise, expect temperatures to 

warm into the low to mid-90s through the next couple of hours, 

while overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 70s.



Tomorrow into Saturday, ridging expands further west and begins 

to broaden out across the southern US, while onshore flow at the

surface continues to pump warm, moist air inland at the surface.

While ridging will provide slight capping aloft, it won't be

enough to keep afternoon convection at bay. Expect isolated to

widely scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon,

driven by daytime heating/the seabreeze, and taper off with sunset

each day. Away from convection, highs top out in the low to mid

90s amid sunny skies. 



17





&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through next Wednesday)

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The long term brings pretty much a rinse a repeat of the ongoing,

repetitive summer pattern. Surface high pressure over the

southeastern US keeps a south to southwest flow in place through

the period, keeping warm moist air overhead. Temperatures continue

to warm into the low to mid 90s each day and fall into the mid to

upper 70s each night, which is near or just slightly above

seasonal norms. Precip wise, a daily chance for scattered, to at

times widespread, showers and storms is expected. Weak mid/upper 

level ridging will become situated more to our west by the start

of the work week, while a mid-level weakness lingers over the SErn

CONUS for a bit longer. This will result in slightly higher rain

chances across Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin each day. Still,

daytime heating driven showers and storms will be possible pretty

much area-wide each day. 



17



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Isolated convection has begun to develop across SE TX, and may

expand across south LA later this afternoon. Overall, rain chances

are rather low today and most terminals will not see precip,

therefore just kept VCTS in the I-10 tafs for the possibility of

isolated convection. Otherwise, light winds and VFR CIGs/VIS 

continue through the forecast period.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A surface high off the southeast U.S. coast will continue to ridge

across the northern Gulf and into the coastal through the weekend

into early next week. The result will be mainly light onshore flow 

and relative low seas. There will be a daily chance of seeing 

scattered showers and thunderstorms. Little day to day changes are

expected.





&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AEX  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  20 

LCH  74  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40 

LFT  74  91  74  91 /  10  40  10  60 

BPT  74  91  75  91 /   0  20  10  30 



&&



.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...None.

TX...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...17

LONG TERM....17

AVIATION...17

