FXUS64 KLIX 262045

AFDLIX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New Orleans LA

345 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Friday night)

Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Broad upper level ridge that was nearly overhead has slid farther 

east and is beginning to breakdown. Since that hasn't completely 

happened yet, still seeing a mix of convective development with 

coverage on the lower side of average for summertime as well as 

quite warm temps. CAMs are not particularly reliable for where 

storms are/will develop but probably decent on timing and duration 

of when we'll have the most activity between now and midnight 

tonight. 



MEFFER

&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through Wednesday night)

Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The upper ridge over the southeast US will become just broad weak 

high pressure over the southern  half of the country tomorrow into 

the middle of next week.  That setup will yield little appreciable 

subsidence to limit convection, especially with highs in the 90s and 

PW's over 2". The POP forecast reflects this transition to a wet 

pattern with coverage around 50% Friday and at least 70% for the 

remainder of the 7 day forecast period. The 2 main impacts to 

monitor with storms will be downbursts and localized heavy rain. 

DCAPE looks to be pretty decent each day over 500j/kg which comes 

from typical summertime T/Td profile in the column. For the heavy 

rain...thats mainly just a result of weak steering pattern as well 

as the seemingly infinite outflow boundaries that'll be produced 

which sometimes aides in repeated rain over a location.  



MEFFER

&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR outside TSRA through this cycle. TSRA chances will be a bit 

higher today, but mainly along and north of a line from KASD to 

KBTR. Did add some PROB30 groups for those terminals. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Surface ridge will be centered over the eastern Gulf of America over 

now into next week. Since not chance of a cold front coming into the 

region attm, gradient winds will generally be stable and relatively 

weak at 10 kts or less. The bigger impacts, albeit more localized, 

will come from daily thunderstorms. Boaters should be congnizant of 

developing storms as they can often produce gusts in the 25 to 40 

knot range. 



MEFFER 

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

MCB  71  91  71  91 /  40  50  20  50 

BTR  74  93  74  93 /  30  50  20  60 

ASD  72  92  74  92 /  30  50  20  60 

MSY  79  93  78  93 /  20  50  20  70 

GPT  74  90  75  90 /  30  50  30  70 

PQL  72  91  73  91 /  40  60  30  70 



&&



.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

LA...None.

GM...None.

MS...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...ME

LONG TERM....ME

AVIATION...ME

MARINE...ME

