FXUS64 KLUB 261738

AFDLUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again

   today across much of the region.

 

 - Daily chances for thunderstorms continue Friday through early

   next week. 



 - A relative warm-up is expected this weekend before slightly

   cooler temperatures return next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Today, an upper jet max within the polar jet will move from the 

central plains into the northeast USA and southeastern Canada. A 

dome of upper level high pressure continues to be situated over 

the southern US while another shortwave upper trough comes ashore

over the Pacific Northwest.



Monsoon moisture as well as additional moisture from the Gulf will 

continue to bring a pattern of light precipitation into the CWA. 

This will increasingly be the case beginning in the early afternoon 

hours as scattered showers and thunderstorms will initiate over 

the area and continue to linger throughout the evening. Despite 

low vertical wind shear magnitudes, expected CAPE should range 

from 500 to 1000 J/kg resulting in an environment favorable for 

short lived pulse storms. Primary hazards are expected to be 

downburst winds to 50 mph. Given the cloud cover and low level 

moisture present, afternoon highs for today will reach the mid to

upper 80s over much of the Caprock which is a few degrees lower 

than average for this time of year. Highs in the low to mid 90s

are expected off the Caprock.



Into this evening, there should be a general downward trend of 

thunderstorm areal coverage and intensity. There is, however, a 

risk of a storm or two moving out of eastern New Mexico overnight.

As such we may see lingering nocturnal convection once again 

tonight into Friday morning.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms will be possible through 

at least early next week with a persistent monsoonal moisture plume 

overhead. Upper level ridging will continue over the southeastern 

CONUS through the weekend bringing weak southwest flow aloft over 

West Texas. Weak embedded disturbances within this flow may bring 

higher chances of convection early next week as the southwest flow 

aloft persists. Warm temperatures each afternoon will lead to a 

deeply mixed boundary layer and at least isolated showers and 

thunderstorms. Weak deep layer shear will bring low chances of 

severe storms but slow storm motions. Isolated areas could see heavy 

rainfall with the weak flow through the atmospheric column. Towards 

the middle of next week, upper level ridging will become weaker with 

time leading to a weakness within the height field aloft. Slight 

chances of afternoon storms may continue underneath this weakness.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions prevail and are expected to persist outside of the

SHRA/TSRA today. Iso SHRA that has continues all morning will

remain in place all day with accompanying OVC090. Have included a

tempo for possible afternoon TSRA at KLBB and KPVW after 00Z. The

threat of TSRA and the SHRA will gradually diminishing overnight 

before retuning late tomorrow morning. Winds will remain primarily

SW at 5-10 kts.





&&



.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...26

LONG TERM....01

AVIATION...28

