FXUS64 KMEG 261721

AFDMEG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Memphis TN

1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Hot and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the

  week. A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide until Friday

  night.

 

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur each

  day. A strong to severe storm could occur this afternoon along 

  and south of Interstate 40 with damaging winds being the primary

  threat.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Yet another muggy night is underway as of 2 AM with temperatures in 

the mid to upper 70s (with Memphis International still at 80 

degrees), which is near what temperatures were 24 hours ago. 

Oppressive heat continues due to a large and intense area of high 

pressure covering much of the southeast and eastern United States. A 

Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area until Friday at 

9 PM. 



Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day. 

There is a low chance of a thunderstorm becoming strong to severe 

this afternoon. The several days of warm air temperatures will allow 

for plentiful instability. Something different than the last few days 

is lapse rates are a bit steeper which resulted in a severe weather 

outlook of a Marginal Risk across north Mississippi. The limiting 

factor at this time is shear. Upper ridging aloft for several days 

really squashes shear, but CAMs look to show some sort of outflow 

boundary being able to spark convective initiation between 2-4 PM. If 

a strong storm can get going, damaging winds are the concern with 

this microburst type convection. Precipitable water values remain 

near climatology for this time of year (1.50- 1.75"), but that is 

enough for any shower to be an efficient rainfall producer. 



While a majority of the forecast is a rinse and repeat, this weekend 

still remains a bit uncertain. A very weak upper level low 

developing off the Gulf Coast on track to the Mid-Atlantic region 

will attempt to dampen the ridge. The upper level pattern will 

gradually shift to a more zonal/northwest regime as the 

aforementioned low churns. This low does not look like it is going 

to be strong enough to cause drastic relief. There is not much 

relief in a 5 mb difference in terms of weakening. Afternoon heat 

indices may drop below 105 (which is advisory criteria), but heat 

indices still could be triple digits. Another concern is that 

overnight lows still do not look to drop below 70 degrees through 

the weekend which can still risk heat related illnesses. The areas 

most likely to have heat indices drop below 105 is east of the 

Mississippi River, with areas along and west still at risk. The heat 

advisory may need to be extended with geographical changes. 



Long range guidance does show a deep trough tracking across the 

Northern Plains early next week, which could be the first shot of 

widespread rainfall and a brief cooldown by the middle of next week. 

Details remain too murky for any specifics, but there may be a glint 

of relief on the horizon.



DNM



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025





Storms are firing along outflow boundaries in far northwest TN and

in east Arkansas and should increase in coverage throughout the 

afternoon hours. South to southwest winds will prevail through the

TAF cycle, generally 7kts or less during daylight hours, 3-4 kts 

overnight. Additional storms are expected to develop by 18z 

tomorrow. Patchy 3-5SM fog/BR is possible overnight near TUP and

MKL.





&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Abundant moisture will keep MinRH values at or above 50%. While

wetting rain conditions are unlikely, light 20ft winds combined

with the moisture will preclude fire weather concerns.



&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-

     036-048-049-058.



MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ113-115.



MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for MSZ001>017-020>024.



TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TNZ001>004-019>022-

     048>055-088>092.



&&



$$



PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM

AVIATION...JDS

