FXUS64 KMOB 261912

AFDMOB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Mobile AL

212 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Slightly drier conditions will prevail this afternoon as shortwave

ridging slowly moves out of the area. Looking at visible

satellite, a small remnant mesoscale convective system (MCV) left

over from storms in Georgia last night is slowly drifting

southwest. This MCV will likely provide enough ascent and low

level convergence to overcome some of the subsidence and result 

in some scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage should be less 

than the last few days and most areas should remain drier today. 

Enjoy it because by Friday we will be back to our regularly 

scheduled soggy summertime. 



Sweet summertime rolls on through the week as we continue a 

rather soggy start to summer. We will remain squished between an 

upper low over Florida and upper level ridging across to our west.

This will keep us in a rather active pattern for the foreseeable 

future. Rain chances look to increase each day through the weekend

and into next week as a series of shortwaves progress across the 

great lakes. Moisture will increase with increasingly 

southwesterly flow. With PWATS climbing to above 2 inches and 

staying above 2 inches through the foreseeable future, expect 

storms to be frequent each afternoon. Like most summertime storms,

we will have to keep an eye out for some strong wind gusts each 

afternoon. The bigger concern will likely be heavy rainfall and 

increased chances for flash flooding. With much of the area 

running a few inches above normal for the month and plenty more 

rain to come, grounds will eventually not be able to handle much 

more rain. As a result, flash flooding risks could increase next 

week. NBM 48 hour QPF means for Monday through Thursday run around

2 to 3 inches along the coast with the 90th percentile around 4-6

inches. While this doesn't sound like much, these amounts at days

4-6 are rather significant and certainly lean towards some 

concerns. The one good thing about the rain is that temperatures 

will be more mild and as a result we will not be dealing with any 

heat related products. BB-8



 &&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions should continue throughout the period with light

east-southeasterly winds. Isolated storms will be possible later

this afternoon along the I-10 corridor; however, coverage should

be limited. VFR conditions will continue overnight with light and

variable winds. BB-8



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Light and variable winds will continue through the weekend before

increasing to a light to moderate westerly wind by early next

week. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through

the weekend and into next week. No other hazards are expected in

the marine zones. 



BB-8



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Mobile      72  91  73  90  73  91  73  89 /  40  70  20  70  30  70  40  80 

Pensacola   74  88  75  89  76  91  75  90 /  40  60  30  70  40  80  50  90 

Destin      77  90  78  91  78  91  78  91 /  40  60  40  70  40  80  60  80 

Evergreen   69  92  70  91  70  92  71  91 /  30  70  20  70  20  70  30  80 

Waynesboro  69  92  70  91  71  91  71  90 /  30  70  10  60  10  60  20  70 

Camden      70  91  71  90  71  90  72  89 /  30  60  20  60  20  60  30  80 

Crestview   69  91  71  91  71  92  71  91 /  30  70  30  90  30  90  40  90 



&&



.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

FL...None.

MS...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



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www.weather.gov/mob

