FXUS64 KMOB 262327

AFDMOB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Mobile AL

627 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New Aviation...



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Slightly drier conditions will prevail this afternoon as shortwave

ridging slowly moves out of the area. Looking at visible

satellite, a small remnant mesoscale convective system (MCV) left

over from storms in Georgia last night is slowly drifting

southwest. This MCV will likely provide enough ascent and low

level convergence to overcome some of the subsidence and result 

in some scattered storms this afternoon. Coverage should be less 

than the last few days and most areas should remain drier today. 

Enjoy it because by Friday we will be back to our regularly 

scheduled soggy summertime. 



Sweet summertime rolls on through the week as we continue a 

rather soggy start to summer. We will remain squished between an 

upper low over Florida and upper level ridging across to our west.

This will keep us in a rather active pattern for the foreseeable 

future. Rain chances look to increase each day through the weekend

and into next week as a series of shortwaves progress across the 

great lakes. Moisture will increase with increasingly 

southwesterly flow. With PWATS climbing to above 2 inches and 

staying above 2 inches through the foreseeable future, expect 

storms to be frequent each afternoon. Like most summertime storms,

we will have to keep an eye out for some strong wind gusts each 

afternoon. The bigger concern will likely be heavy rainfall and 

increased chances for flash flooding. With much of the area 

running a few inches above normal for the month and plenty more 

rain to come, grounds will eventually not be able to handle much 

more rain. As a result, flash flooding risks could increase next 

week. NBM 48 hour QPF means for Monday through Thursday run around

2 to 3 inches along the coast with the 90th percentile around 4-6

inches. While this doesn't sound like much, these amounts at days

4-6 are rather significant and certainly lean towards some 

concerns. The one good thing about the rain is that temperatures 

will be more mild and as a result we will not be dealing with any 

heat related products. BB-8





.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



General VFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 

23z. A few thunderstorms were noted east of the Tombigbee River, 

bringing local drops in conditions to mid level MVFR. This

activity is expected to continue through mid evening, maybe 

increase in coverage a bit as a mid level system moves west over 

the forecast area. 



Later tonight through Friday is pretty much a same ole-same ole

sort of day, with showers and thunderstorms forming along and 

south of the coast in the morning, then spreading inland during 

the day. The greatest coverage and strength is expected in the 

afternoon. Low end MVFR conditions are possible in the strongest 

storms, along with locally strong and direction variable winds. 

/16



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Light and variable winds will continue through the weekend before

increasing to a light to moderate westerly wind by early next

week. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through

the weekend and into next week. No other hazards are expected in

the marine zones. 



BB-8



&&



.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...None.

FL...None.

MS...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



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