FXUS64 KMRX 261757

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

157 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Friday)

Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Key Messages:



1. Scattered showers and storms mainly this afternoon/early evening 

and again tomorrow afternoon. A few strong to severe storms possible 

as well as localized flooding. 



2. Still hot tomorrow, although should be below heat advisory levels.





Discussion:



The large ridge of high pressure continues over the region, although 

its grip will begin to slowly weaken. We have seen convection firing 

across the northeastern part of the area this afternoon near the 

remains of an outflow boundary that pushed north from the early 

morning southern convection. Areas further south behind the outflow 

boundary had stabilized, but have been slowly destabilizing and 

additional isolated to scattered convection is likely to develop 

across southern and central areas later this afternoon into early 

evening. With plenty of CAPE and DCAPES generally around or 

exceeding 1000 J/kg along with steep low level lapse rates, any 

stronger storms this afternoon will have the potential to produce 

damaging wind gusts. In addition, given the week flow resulting in 

slow storm movement, very heavy rainfall will be possible along with 

localized flooding.  



Tomorrow will see another hot day. Heat index values are forecast

to top out in the mid 90s to around 100 range in most valley 

locations, and the HeatRisk values tomorrow are currently no 

higher than moderate, so the heat advisory will be allowed to 

expire this evening on schedule. Convective energy and moisture 

tomorrow are not forecast to be much different than this 

afternoon and flow will still be weak, so scattered to numerous 

showers and thunderstorms are expected again with damaging wind 

and localized flooding threats similar to this afternoon. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday night through next Thursday)

Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Key Messages:



1. Higher rain chances and slightly lower daytime temperatures 

through the weekend into the early part of the week. Isolated strong 

or severe storms and localized flash flooding are possible each day.



2. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday, with the possibility of 

less precipitation coverage Wednesday and Thursday if the front 

makes it to our south/east.



Discussion:



Ensemble data continues to show a very moist airmass over the region 

for Saturday through Tuesday, with mean PW values generally in the 

range of 1.7 to 2 inches. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will be 

gradually loosening its grip on the Southeast. We will see a high 

CAPE/low shear environment with numerous showers and thunderstorms 

around each day Saturday through Monday. The strongest of these 

pulse type storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts 

at times especially during peak heating.  Also, given the very moist 

environment, any storms will be capable of producing very heavy 

rainfall that causes localized flooding.  This threat of localized 

flooding will continue Tuesday as well as a weak cold front 

approaches.  High temperatures during the Saturday through Monday 

period are expected to be near to just a few degrees above seasonal 

normals.



As is often the case with summertime cold fronts, there is a 

question about whether or not it will make it through our area 

before stalling.  Right now, much of the model data suggests it will 

make it to our south and southeast by early Wednesday, allowing for 

slightly cooler and drier air to move in. Given the uncertainty 

about where the front will stall, we will still have some showers 

and thunderstorms in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, but 

PoPs are currently lower.&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Thunderstorms around TRI to start, and additional scattered storms

are expected around further south later this afternoon/early

evening. Will carry prob30 thunder groups all sites during the

period of highest probability. Brief gusty winds can be expected

with any thunderstorms.  Fog development later tonight will be 

possible especially TRI (given the rainfall there this afternoon),

so will include MVFR vsby in fog at TRI for now and lower vsby values

may occur. Outside any convection and the aforementioned fog at 

TRI, will have a VFR forecast all sites. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  93  72  90 /  20  60  30  60 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  92  71  89 /  30  60  40  70 

Oak Ridge, TN                       71  91  71  88 /  20  60  40  70 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  89  68  85 /  30  70  40  70 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...NONE.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for 

     Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-

     Meigs-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-

     Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk.



VA...NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...

AVIATION...

