FXUS64 KOHX 261642

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

1142 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1051 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday as heat index 

  values reach into the triple digits each day.



- Rain chances will gradually increase late this week and

  especially this weekend.



- Temperatures will taper off closer to seasonal normals next

  week. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Rest of today through Friday)

Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



We are a touch cooler right now than we have been previous days

due to a rather large area of rain and thunderstorms that pushed

north through the western half of the area this morning. 

Temperatures are sitting around 80 to 85 degrees, however, 

satellite does show pockets of clearing within the cloud shield, 

so temperatures will continue to rise through the afternoon. With 

dew point temperatures still in the 70s, today will once again 

feature very hot and humid conditions with heat index values in 

the triple digits. As for thunderstorm development through the 

remainder of today, the latest HREF brings pretty widespread 

scattered activity this afternoon assuming clouds continue to 

clear out enough for instability to ramp back up. Similar to 

previous days this week, there is very little thermodynamic 

support for severe thunderstorms as bulk shear values are in the 

single digits and mid-level lapse rates are poor. CAPEs will be 

high, though, so any storms that do develop will likely go up very

quick. DCAPE values jumped out at me today with values near 1300 

J/kg, and coupled with PWAT values still near 1.70", very heavy 

downpours will be possible. This could lead to gusty winds and 

flash flooding, so be very cautious if you get caught under a 

storm today.



Activity will dwindle down this evening and it will be another

warm and muggy night with lows in the mid 70s. Friday will feature

similar conditions with perhaps more widespread convection as the

ridge continues to break down. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday Night through next Thursday)

Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The heat advisory will finally be allowed to expire at 7 PM 

Friday. As we move into the weekend, daily rain and thunderstorm

chances will stay with us as we lose the influence of the ridge. 

It will still be hot and humid, but temperatures will be back 

closer to what we're used to in late June as drier air is allowed

to mix back in, keeping heat indicies lower. An upper level low

will move across the Great Lakes at the start of the work week

that will eventually bring a front through the area. This 

currently looks to happen on Tuesday. PWAT values look to increase

once again to near 2" which exceeds the 90th percentile sounding 

climatology for Nashville. Efficient rainfall rates will be 

possible with any activity we see through mid week, so again, be 

on the lookout for any flooding. On the plus side, bulk shear 

values currently look low each day, generally less than 10 kts, 

so this does not favor severe weather. Temperatures will be near 

normal through next week with daily highs in the upper 80s to low 

90s.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Mostly VFR conditions this morning with the exception of some 

reduced VIS over the Cumberland Plateau and thunderstorms over the

southern portion of the CWA causing MVFR CIGs and VIS. Storm 

activity will diminish through the morning along with the reduced 

VIS over the Upper Cumberland. Light and variable winds are 

expected today with VFR conditions. This afternoon, scattered 

thunderstorms develop across the CWA. Tonight, some areas of 

reduced VIS is possible throughout Middle TN. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Nashville      96  74  93  75 /  20  20  40  20 

Clarksville    95  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  30 

Crossville     89  68  87  68 /  30  20  60  30 

Columbia       94  72  92  72 /  30  20  50  20 

Cookeville     91  70  88  70 /  30  20  50  30 

Jamestown      91  69  88  68 /  20  10  50  30 

Lawrenceburg   94  71  91  71 /  40  30  50  20 

Murfreesboro   96  72  93  72 /  20  20  50  20 

Waverly        93  72  91  72 /  20  20  20  20 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>011-023>034-

056>066-075-077>080-093>095.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Baggett

LONG TERM....Baggett

AVIATION.....Cravens

