FXUS64 KOHX 262211

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

511 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New UPDATE...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 506 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Dangerous heat will continue through Friday as heat index 

  values reach into the triple digits each day.



- Rain chances will gradually increase late this week and

  especially this weekend.



- Temperatures will taper off closer to seasonal normals next

  week. 



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 506 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Despite the widespread convective activity that developed this

morning across parts of Middle Tennessee, the afternoon storms

that we were anticipating have yet to materialize. Morning clouds

have given way to afternoon sunshine, but temperatures have not

quite warmed to earlier forecasted values. Of course, it's still

plenty hot outside, but the instability parameters we're seeing

today are not nearly what we saw yesterday. The HRRR does show a

few cells developing across Middle Tennessee by early evening, 

but even then the coverage wouldn't be what we had expected for 

today. Fortunately, we've only one more day of the Heat Advisory 

before slightly cooler temperatures settle in for the weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Rest of today through Friday)

Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



We are a touch cooler right now than we have been previous days

due to a rather large area of rain and thunderstorms that pushed

north through the western half of the area this morning. 

Temperatures are sitting around 80 to 85 degrees, however, 

satellite does show pockets of clearing within the cloud shield, 

so temperatures will continue to rise through the afternoon. With 

dew point temperatures still in the 70s, today will once again 

feature very hot and humid conditions with heat index values in 

the triple digits. As for thunderstorm development through the 

remainder of today, the latest HREF brings pretty widespread 

scattered activity this afternoon assuming clouds continue to 

clear out enough for instability to ramp back up. Similar to 

previous days this week, there is very little thermodynamic 

support for severe thunderstorms as bulk shear values are in the 

single digits and mid-level lapse rates are poor. CAPEs will be 

high, though, so any storms that do develop will likely go up very

quick. DCAPE values jumped out at me today with values near 1300 

J/kg, and coupled with PWAT values still near 1.70", very heavy 

downpours will be possible. This could lead to gusty winds and 

flash flooding, so be very cautious if you get caught under a 

storm today.



Activity will dwindle down this evening and it will be another

warm and muggy night with lows in the mid 70s. Friday will feature

similar conditions with perhaps more widespread convection as the

ridge continues to break down. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday Night through next Thursday)

Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The heat advisory will finally be allowed to expire at 7 PM 

Friday. As we move into the weekend, daily rain and thunderstorm

chances will stay with us as we lose the influence of the ridge. 

It will still be hot and humid, but temperatures will be back 

closer to what we're used to in late June as drier air is allowed

to mix back in, keeping heat indicies lower. An upper level low

will move across the Great Lakes at the start of the work week

that will eventually bring a front through the area. This 

currently looks to happen on Tuesday. PWAT values look to increase

once again to near 2" which exceeds the 90th percentile sounding 

climatology for Nashville. Efficient rainfall rates will be 

possible with any activity we see through mid week, so again, be 

on the lookout for any flooding. On the plus side, bulk shear 

values currently look low each day, generally less than 10 kts, 

so this does not favor severe weather. Temperatures will be near 

normal through next week with daily highs in the upper 80s to low 

90s.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Light and variable to light SW winds this afternoon with VFR 

conditions. Scattered thunderstorms develop across the CWA late

this afternoon into early evening. Tonight, some areas of reduced

VIS is possible throughout Middle TN. VFR conditions and light

winds continue through Friday.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      74  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60 

Clarksville    74  91  74  90 /  10  30  20  60 

Crossville     67  87  67  85 /  20  60  30  70 

Columbia       72  91  72  91 /  20  50  20  60 

Cookeville     70  88  69  86 /  20  50  30  70 

Jamestown      69  88  68  86 /  10  50  30  70 

Lawrenceburg   71  90  71  89 /  20  50  20  60 

Murfreesboro   72  92  72  91 /  20  50  20  60 

Waverly        72  91  72  91 /  10  30  20  50 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ005>011-023>034-

056>066-075-077>080-093>095.



&&



$$



UPDATE.......Rose

SHORT TERM...Baggett

LONG TERM....Baggett

AVIATION.....Cravens

