FXUS64 KOUN 261726

AFDOUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Norman OK

1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Heat index values up to 100 degrees, with a few areas of up to

  105 degrees.



- A few severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.



- Rain and storm chances increase Monday into Tuesday. 



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Light radar returns across western Oklahoma early this morning 

are associated with a band of mid-level clouds. Surface 

observations across West Texas and western Oklahoma indicate 

ceiling heights are roughly 8-10k feet. There should be just 

enough elevated instability (100- 150 J/kg) above this layer for 

widely scattered showers to persist into the early/mid morning 

hours today. 



It appears that by early to mid afternoon, differential heating 

should result in boundary layer thunderstorms.  Recent CAMs and more

particularly the HRRR, suggest this will occur from near Cherokee 

southwest to Clinton and Frederick.  This seems plausible given the 

current orientation of the clouds in western Oklahoma and their

movement. Regardless, afternoon storms are expected to form 

within a weakly sheared environment with PWATs around 1.75+ (in.).

Instability is forecast to be around 2,000 J/kg, so pulse like 

storms will be capable of isolated damaging wind gusts. CAMs also 

suggest a quick 1 to 2 inches of rainfall may occur with the 

stronger cores which could result in some temporary flooding, 

especially urban areas. New storms will form along convective 

outflow boundaries with perhaps a preference to the east. During 

the early to mid evening, there will be a decrease in storm 

intensity, but some of the precipitation will linger. Blended PoP 

guidance remains rather high across western and northern Oklahoma 

during the late evening/overnight. A little unsure about this, but

for now will leave as is. 



Temperature will still be rather hot today, mainly lower 90s with 

perhaps some mid to upper 80s where mid clouds are more persistent. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Friday through Saturday night)

Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Given the rather high PWATs and some hints of weak disturbances 

skirting mainly northern Oklahoma, rain and storm chances Friday

into Saturday will not be zero.  Recent HRRR runs even suggest a 

better potential for afternoon storms Friday across mainly southern

Oklahoma.  Day-to-day predictability can certainly be a challenge

within weakly shear/moist environments.  For now, it appears storms 

will likely form Friday, but storm coverage will be isolated to 

widely scattered. Heavy downpours and strong gusty winds are

possible with the stronger cores. Models still suggest weak 

height rises will occur Saturday, so perhaps even fewer storms on 

Saturday. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Late weekend through the middle of next week, the stronger 

westerlies will remain well north of the southern Plains.  A 

shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Great Lakes 

region, will push a weak front closer to northern Oklahoma by 

Monday. It's possible for storms to become organized enough across

the higher terrain Sunday afternoon that storms will enter 

western and northern Oklahoma during the evening/overnight. A 

decent low-level jet may help, as the mid-level flow will be 

rather weak (mainly below 20 knots). With a weakness in the ridge 

and a frontal boundary near/in the area, shower and thunderstorm 

chances will remain in the 30-50% range at least Monday into 

Tuesday. With the mid-level flow remaining rather weak, storms and

clusters of storms will have the potential to produce locally 

heavy rainfall andstrong gusty winds. There is some indication 

that a ridge may become better established by mid to late week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through 

the afternoon, gradually shifting eastward. Chances lessen tonight, 

with redevelopment possible tomorrow. Winds will be mainly 

southerly, sometimes shifting to southwesterly. Some gusts this 

afternoon, but thereafter remaining light.



Day



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Oklahoma City OK  73  91  74  93 /  20  30  10  10 

Hobart OK         72  94  72  96 /  30  20  10  10 

Wichita Falls TX  74  93  75  96 /  20  10   0  10 

Gage OK           68  93  70  95 /  50  10  10  10 

Ponca City OK     71  91  72  93 /  40  30  20  10 

Durant OK         73  92  75  94 /  10  10   0  10 



&&



.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...06

SHORT TERM...06

LONG TERM....06

AVIATION...14

