FXUS64 KOUN 262217

AFDOUN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Norman OK

517 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 514 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- A few severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.



- Rain and storm chances increase Monday into Tuesday. 



&&



.NEAR TERM...

(Rest of today and tonight)

Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Scattered storms are expected to develop by early to midafternoon - 

in fact, by the time of this AFD being published they might be 

getting going. Moderate instability is anticipated with little-to-no-

deep layer shear. That means we'll expect short-lived, slow-moving 

updrafts whose main concern is brief downpours, lightning, and gusty 

outflow winds.



There will likely be a bit of a lull in storm coverage early 

tonight as loss of daytime heating stabilizes the surface layer. 

After that, there's a signal in CAM guidance for storms to get 

going again in central Oklahoma late tonight into early tomorrow 

along the nose of a 20-30 knot LLJ. Flooding concern with all of 

this activity is minimal given the expected short duration of any 

one thunderstorm, but with PWATS approaching 2 inches, we 

certainly won't rule it out. Temperatures both today and tonight 

will be near normal.



Meister



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Friday through Saturday night)

Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The subtropical ridge will begin to migrate westward back across the 

southern tier of the US with rising heights across the desert 

southwest tomorrow. That's going to lead to a few days with higher 

theta-E values across our area. Tomorrow may be more of an increase 

in humidity than outright temperatures - some guidance shows PWATS 

exceeding 2 inches in southeast Oklahoma. Storm chances will 

continue from the morning through the daytime in 

central/southern/eastern Oklahoma, particularly given the likelihood 

that there will be convection ongoing in central Oklahoma at 

daybreak. Severe weather looks unlikely given the weak shear, but 

water-loaded downdrafts and some hydro issues are possible.



Height rises will continue on Saturday. Rain chances won't go away 

entirely but the odds are that most of the area will remain dry. We 

haven't quite cleared the humidity out of the airmass either, so 

temperatures won't make a run at 100 (except for potentially in the 

terrain-favored spots for hot temperatures in southwest Oklahoma and 

western north Texas), but they will get into the mid-90s in most 

spots.



Meister



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Late weekend through the middle of next week, the stronger 

westerlies will remain well north of the southern Plains.  A 

shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains/Great Lakes 

region, will push a weak front closer to northern Oklahoma by 

Monday. It's possible for storms to become organized enough across

the higher terrain Sunday afternoon that storms will enter 

western and northern Oklahoma during the evening/overnight. A 

decent low-level jet may help, as the mid-level flow will be 

rather weak (mainly below 20 knots). With a weakness in the ridge 

and a frontal boundary near/in the area, shower and thunderstorm 

chances will remain in the 30-50% range at least Monday into 

Tuesday. With the mid-level flow remaining rather weak, storms and

clusters of storms will have the potential to produce locally 

heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. There is some indication 

that a ridge may become better established by mid to late week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 514 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR/low VFR ceilings are expected this TAF period. Showers/storms

will continue to move across parts of the area through about mid-

evening. Additional showers/storms will be possible starting early

Friday and continuing into the afternoon. Variable strong wind

gusts will be possible near the storms. Otherwise, winds will

generally be from the S and SE tonight shifting to the S and SW

Friday.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Oklahoma City OK  73  90  73  94 /  40  30  10  10 

Hobart OK         72  94  72  97 /  40  20   0   0 

Wichita Falls TX  75  93  74  96 /  40  20   0   0 

Gage OK           68  92  70  96 /  30  20  10   0 

Ponca City OK     71  90  72  91 /  40  30  20  10 

Durant OK         74  93  75  94 /  10  20   0  10 



&&



.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&



$$



NEAR TERM...04

SHORT TERM...04

LONG TERM....06

AVIATION...25

