FXUS64 KSHV 261842

AFDSHV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

142 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.



- Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible for the next several

  days. But chances will increase through next week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION... 

Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The upper-level ridge is still firmly in place over much of the

Southeast CONUS, so conditions will be similar to that of previous

days. Apparent temps are not projected to get high enough to

warrant an advisory to be issued today even though some places

will be on the cool side of criteria. Any diurnal convection that

develops this afternoon will likely dissipate in the first few 

hours of the period, as has been the case with storms the past few

days. Temperatures will stay in the 70s as with partly cloudy

skies across the region. 



Friday will have some more focused diurnal convection in our

northwest and southeastern zones thanks to the co-location of 

upper-level forcing and mid-level moisture. To the northwest, an

upper-level shear axis in the southern Great Plains could assist 

anything that initiates in the increased area of moisture. The 

southeast will likely have a similar moisture profile with some 

support from a retrograding inverted trough.



As the weekend approaches, the upper-level ridge that is in place

will try to retrograde and move to the west. This will allow for

more of the same heat and afternoon thunderstorm development

across the Four State Region. Monday could be the start of some 

more widespread rain chances as the area of lift from the moving 

upper-level ridge settles over the region. I have carried the

higher PoPs from the NBM from Monday through Thursday of next

week, but the coverage may change based on the actual movement of

the ridge. More widespread rain could help bring temperatures down

a touch, but not enough for it to be considered a relief from the

persistant heat. This component of the forecast will be up in the

air until there is more of a consensus on the ridge's movement

next week. /57/



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



For the 26/18Z TAF period, cu field has lifted to VFR status early

this afternoon across our airspace with some spotty convection

beginning to pop up near KLFK. This trend should continue through

the remainder of the afternoon across Deep East TX into parts of

NCntrl LA and SCntrl AR so have included VCTS at KELD/KMLU/KLFK.

Any lingering convection should diminish by 27/00Z or shortly

thereafter with some convective debris cirrus clouds this evening

before diminishing. Any returning low stratus on Friday morning

should be confined to KTYR and possibly KLFK while the remaining

terminals are expected to maintain VFR conditions. Light southerly

winds between 3-6 kts on average will prevail through the period.



/19/



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms

capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter 

activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not 

likely through tonight. 



13



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SHV  95  76  96  77 /  20  20   0   0 

MLU  95  74  95  76 /  30  20  10   0 

DEQ  92  71  92  72 /  10  10  10   0 

TXK  95  75  96  76 /  10   0  10   0 

ELD  94  72  95  74 /  20  10   0   0 

TYR  91  73  92  74 /  20  20  10   0 

GGG  92  73  92  74 /  20  20  10   0 

LFK  92  72  93  73 /  30  20  10   0 



&&



.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

LA...None.

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...57

AVIATION...19

