FXUS64 KSHV 262337

AFDSHV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

637 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.



- Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible for the next several

  days. But chances will increase through next week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION... 

Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The upper-level ridge is still firmly in place over much of the

Southeast CONUS, so conditions will be similar to that of previous

days. Apparent temps are not projected to get high enough to

warrant an advisory to be issued today even though some places

will be on the cool side of criteria. Any diurnal convection that

develops this afternoon will likely dissipate in the first few 

hours of the period, as has been the case with storms the past few

days. Temperatures will stay in the 70s as with partly cloudy

skies across the region. 



Friday will have some more focused diurnal convection in our

northwest and southeastern zones thanks to the co-location of 

upper-level forcing and mid-level moisture. To the northwest, an

upper-level shear axis in the southern Great Plains could assist 

anything that initiates in the increased area of moisture. The 

southeast will likely have a similar moisture profile with some 

support from a retrograding inverted trough.



As the weekend approaches, the upper-level ridge that is in place

will try to retrograde and move to the west. This will allow for

more of the same heat and afternoon thunderstorm development

across the Four State Region. Monday could be the start of some 

more widespread rain chances as the area of lift from the moving 

upper-level ridge settles over the region. I have carried the

higher PoPs from the NBM from Monday through Thursday of next

week, but the coverage may change based on the actual movement of

the ridge. More widespread rain could help bring temperatures down

a touch, but not enough for it to be considered a relief from the

persistant heat. This component of the forecast will be up in the

air until there is more of a consensus on the ridge's movement

next week. /57/



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Scattered diurnal convection and terminal TSRA continues this

afternoon, with vicinity SHRA and TSRA prevailing for some of the

local terminals. Elsewhere, mainly across the AR terminals, the

afternoon SCT/BKN CU field has started to collapse, with daytime

heating coming to a close. Similar to previous nights the

diurnally driven SHRA/TSRA will become outflow dominate and fall

apart just before sunset. Overnight, remnant cloud debris will

likely linger, keeping some FEW/SCT FL200/250 through sunrise. 

Rinse and repeat pattern will follow with early to mid afternoon 

CU field below 5kft, with some high level cirrus aloft. Afternoon

diurnally driven TSRA will return with hi-res supported VCTS 

expected around LFK and MLU close to 00z. That being said, it is

possible that other terminals see VCTS added in future updates.

Terminal winds will remain S/SW through the period between 

5-10kt.



KNAPP 



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms

capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter 

activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not 

likely through tonight. 



13



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SHV  76  96  77  97 /  20   0   0  10 

MLU  74  95  76  96 /  20  10   0  10 

DEQ  71  92  72  93 /  10  10   0  10 

TXK  75  96  76  97 /   0  10   0  10 

ELD  72  95  74  95 /  10   0   0  10 

TYR  73  92  74  93 /  20  10   0   0 

GGG  73  92  74  94 /  20  10   0   0 

LFK  72  93  73  94 /  20  10   0  10 



&&



.SHVWATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

LA...None.

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...57

AVIATION...53

