FXUS64 KTSA 261504

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1004 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New UPDATE...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 958 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



   - Low thunderstorm chances expand into portions of E OK late

     this afternoon and evening, with low precip chances

     persisting overnight. A storm or two may produce strong to

     marginally severe wind gusts today, primarily in Osage/ Pawnee

     counties.



   - Hot and humid conditions will continue into the weekend with

     heat indices of 95-105 F across the area.



   - Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms likely much of

     this week. Storm coverage may increase late this weekend 

     into early next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 958 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Showers and embedded thunderstorms were ongoing along a sfc 

trough/ weak frontal zone in western Oklahoma this morning. This 

feature will translate east today, with additional development 

expected as it moves into north-central Oklahoma this afternoon. 

Showers and storms are then forecast to impinge on northwestern 

portions of our CWA by late afternoon/ evening. Storms may impact 

areas generally along and west of Highway 75 this evening before 

dissipating as instability decreases. While minimal shear should 

keep the severe threat limited, storms this evening may produce 

strong to marginally severe wind gusts, primarily in Osage/ Pawnee

counties. Isolated showers may also develop across the terrain of

SE OK and NW AR, but opted to keep PoPs just below mentionable 

values with coverage expected to remain limited. Aside from minor 

tweaks to PoPs and temps, no significant changes were required for

the morning update.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today)

Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Large plume of subtropical Pacific moisture remains over the Great

Plains with a weak frontal zone also in that general vicinity.

Both are expected to shift more to the east later today as the 

mid level flow begins to veer with the passage of a shortwave to 

the north. Storm chances will begin to spread more toward

northeast OK late this afternoon and evening as a result. An

isolated pop-up shower remains possible in the terrain as well,

but coverage appears below mentionable levels. Temperatures should

remain in a similar range to what has been observed of late.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tonight through Wednesday)

Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The above mentioned moisture plume/frontal zone is forecast to

remain oriented toward northeast OK into the weekend, with

potential expansion of precip chances farther southeast toward 

I-40 corridor and into northwest AR Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures should continue close to seasonal norms.



The general trend early next week remains a stronger wave moving

across the northern CONUS, pushing a front toward the region as

the upper ridge in the east weakens. While a significant front

passage isn't likely, there should be an increase in shower and

thunderstorm coverage and a resultant down trends in 

temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR TAFs will prevail. The latest CAMs suggest increasing

potential for storms to move into NE OK aft 00Z with a gradual

weakening as they move into the region. Have elected to do a

prob30 for a few hours this evening for NE OK TAFs. Guidance was

more gusty with the sfc winds across NW AR so have included gust 

mention at all far NW AR sites, to go along with NE OK sites.



Lacy



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   91  75  90  75 /  20  20  40  10 

FSM   94  74  93  75 /  10  10  20  10 

MLC   91  73  91  74 /  10  10  20  10 

BVO   90  71  89  71 /  20  30  40  20 

FYV   91  72  89  72 /  10  10  30  10 

BYV   91  72  88  72 /  10  10  30  10 

MKO   89  73  89  73 /  10  10  30  10 

MIO   90  71  88  72 /  20  20  40  20 

F10   89  73  90  73 /  10  10  30  10 

HHW   89  72  90  73 /  10   0  10   0 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...14

LONG TERM....14

AVIATION...30

