FXUS65 KABQ 261750 AAA

AFDABQ



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Albuquerque NM

1150 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1149 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Shower and storm coverage gradually lowers through Saturday, but

  slow storm motion will keep the risk for flash flooding going,

  mainly on recent burn scars.



- Another surge of monsoon moisture moves in for the first week of

  July resulting in greater coverage of showers and storms and an

  increasing flash flood threat in the days leading up to the

  Fourth of July holiday.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today through Friday)

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Drier mid level air has moved into western and much of central NM 

this morning thanks to the weak upper level trough moving into 

Arizona with the plume of monsoon moisture situated across south 

central NM and along and east of the central mountain chain. PWATs 

greater than 0.7 inches look to be present along and east of the 

central mountain chain and along and south of U.S. 60 in Socorro and 

Catron County. With this, shower and storm coverage will look to 

favor these aforementioned areas. Storms will start across the 

southwest and central mountain chain midday with very slow and 

erratic motion to the east-southeast during the afternoon and 

evening hours. With the higher available moisture and very slow 

storm motion, locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will still 

exist across southern and eastern areas, including the Ruidoso area. 

With CAMS and the HREF showing mean rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.25 

inches across the Sacramento Mountains during the early afternoon 

hours, a new Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the zone. Note, 

today could end up being a more problematic day for the Ruidoso area 

due to more clearing this upcoming morning, unlike the last 2 days 

where dense morning cloud cover limited instability and hampered 

storm development. For the HPCC burn scar, some storms do look to 

develop over the scar, but the CAMs and the HREF show pretty low QPF 

over the burn scar with max 3 hr ensemble amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 

inches on the far eastern portion of the burn scar. These storms 

will have a little more progressive motion to the east-southeast 

with higher rainfall amounts over the northeast plains. This makes 

sense given that the burn scar is on the western edge of the higher 

moisture with much drier air just to the west. For that reason, no 

Flash FLood Watch is needed for the HPCC burn scar. Showers and 

storms linger across the lower RGV and far eastern plains this 

evening with most activity done after midnight. Friday looks to be a 

repeat of today, so another Flash Flood Watch will be needed for the 

Ruidoso area. Decided to let the day shift issue this watch since 

one is already in effect for today's activity and to keep things 

simple. With more typical shower and storm coverage and much less 

cloud cover than earlier in the week, temperatures will warm back up 

close to average across western and central NM and slightly below 

average across eastern NM.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



An upper high will build over the region through the weekend to 

near 592dam at 500mb and become centered along the AZ/NM border.

This trend will bring rising temperatures to western NM, while

sufficient moisture remains in place along/east of the central

mountain chain for scattered daytime heating triggered convection

and a continued threat for burn scar flash flooding. PWATs are

forecast to increase westward across the area Mon/Tue as the upper

high weakens and easterly low level flow increases in response to

a Pacific trough making slow eastward progress from central CA

into western NV. Expect an uptick in coverage of storms across

central and western NM Mon/Tue as a result of the moisture surge.

PWATS will continue to rise Wed/Thu as the upper high diminishes

and flow turns from the south in the mid/lower levels of the

atmosphere. Both the latest ECMWF and GFS show the potential for a

tropical moisture tap to develop late next week as the more

dominant upper high sets up along the Gulf coast and a weak

Pacific trough along the west coast steer a potential tropical

system toward the Baja Peninsula. So, expect an increasing threat

for flash flooding next week, especially on area burn scars.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1149 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this 

afternoon across southern and southeast NM. To TAF sites, eastern NM 

terminals are most likely to be affected, though confidence was only 

high enough at KTCC to place a TEMPO from 00z to 04z. KLVS and KROW 

maintain PROB30s for TS development after 21z. MVFR conditions can 

be expected in any thunderstorm, and VFR conditions are expected to 

prevail elsewhere. Of all terminals in the state, KSRR shows the 

highest likelihood of showers and thunderstorms based on its 

proximity to a common initiation point with the Sacramento 

Mountains, with a timeframe of 18z to 03z. Showers are likely to 

exit the state between 04-06z, with SCT to BKN clouds remaining 

across eastern NM overnight.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 1231 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Shower and storm coverage will favor southern and eastern New Mexico 

today and Friday with little to no storm coverage along and west of 

I-25 and along and north of U.S. 60 due to drier air aloft mixing 

down to the surface during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be 

hotter and closer to average compared to the last few days due to 

much less morning cloud cover. High pressure builds back overhead 

for the weekend resulting in the lowest storm coverage of the period 

favoring the central mountain chain and Gila Mountains midday 

shifting to the nearby lower elevations and eastern plains during 

the evening. The high shifts to the Four Corners region early next 

week with moisture increasing from east to west behind a backdoor 

front. This will result in higher shower and storm coverage 

areawide. Higher shower and storm coverage will favor western and 

central NM for the first few days of July as a traditional monsoon 

setup develops over the desert southwest.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Farmington......................  91  55  93  56 /   0   0   0   0 

Dulce...........................  86  44  88  42 /   0   0   5   0 

Cuba............................  84  53  86  52 /   0   0  10   5 

Gallup..........................  88  47  89  47 /   0   0   0   0 

El Morro........................  84  51  84  53 /   0   0  10   0 

Grants..........................  87  50  86  50 /   5   5  10   5 

Quemado.........................  85  53  81  55 /  10   5  10   5 

Magdalena.......................  84  59  83  59 /  20  10  30  10 

Datil...........................  83  54  82  55 /  20  10  20  10 

Reserve.........................  85  50  87  50 /  10  10  20   0 

Glenwood........................  88  55  89  55 /  20  10  20   5 

Chama...........................  79  45  82  45 /   0   0   5   5 

Los Alamos......................  81  59  83  59 /  10   5  20  10 

Pecos...........................  80  54  80  56 /  20  10  30  10 

Cerro/Questa....................  80  51  83  52 /  10   0  10   5 

Red River.......................  71  43  72  44 /  10   5  20   5 

Angel Fire......................  76  38  78  38 /  20   5  20   5 

Taos............................  83  50  86  48 /  10   0  10   5 

Mora............................  76  47  78  48 /  30  10  30  10 

Espanola........................  87  58  90  57 /  10   5  10   5Santa Fe........................  84  59  84  60 /  10   5  20  10 

Santa Fe Airport................  86  58  87  57 /  10   5  20  10 

Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  65  90  66 /   5   5  20  10 

Albuquerque Heights.............  90  65  90  64 /   5   5  10  10 

Albuquerque Valley..............  92  63  93  62 /   5   5  10  10 

Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  64  91  64 /   5   5  10  10 

Belen...........................  93  61  93  60 /   5   5  10  10 

Bernalillo......................  92  62  93  62 /   5   5  10  10 

Bosque Farms....................  92  61  93  60 /   5   5  10  10 

Corrales........................  91  63  92  63 /   5   5  10  10 

Los Lunas.......................  93  61  93  61 /   5   5  10  10 

Placitas........................  90  63  90  63 /   5   5  10  10 

Rio Rancho......................  91  64  91  63 /   5   5  10  10 

Socorro.........................  92  64  92  65 /  20  10  20  10 

Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  57  85  57 /  10   5  20  20 

Tijeras.........................  86  59  87  59 /  10   5  20  20 

Edgewood........................  84  54  84  52 /  10  10  20  20 

Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  51  85  50 /  20  10  20  20 

Clines Corners..................  81  55  80  54 /  20  10  30  20 

Mountainair.....................  84  56  83  56 /  20  10  30  20 

Gran Quivira....................  84  56  81  55 /  30  20  40  20 

Carrizozo.......................  83  62  81  62 /  50  30  50  20 

Ruidoso.........................  74  55  72  56 /  70  20  70  20 

Capulin.........................  79  52  83  52 /  40  20  20  20 

Raton...........................  83  51  86  51 /  30  10  20  10 

Springer........................  86  52  89  51 /  30  10  20  10 

Las Vegas.......................  81  52  81  52 /  30  10  30  20 

Clayton.........................  87  60  90  61 /  40  30  10  20 

Roy.............................  83  57  85  57 /  40  30  10  20 

Conchas.........................  90  63  92  62 /  40  30  10  20 

Santa Rosa......................  88  61  88  60 /  30  20  20  20 

Tucumcari.......................  88  62  91  63 /  30  30  10  20 

Clovis..........................  88  64  89  64 /  30  30  20  20 

Portales........................  89  64  90  65 /  40  30  20  20 

Fort Sumner.....................  89  63  90  62 /  30  20  20  20 

Roswell.........................  89  68  92  68 /  30  20  30  20 

Picacho.........................  84  60  84  60 /  50  20  60  20 

Elk.............................  80  58  81  57 /  70  20  70  20 



&&



.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-240.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...71

LONG TERM....11

AVIATION...77

