FXUS65 KBOI 261530

AFDBOI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

930 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.DISCUSSION...The weak cold front is moving to our east this

morning, with lingering clouds mainly across Baker County and

southwest Idaho. Low chance (15%) of showers and thunderstorms

exists this evening over eastern Valley County, as the trough 

continues to move out of the northwest. Warm temperatures and 

dry conditions will prevail through the weekend, then much 

hotter temperatures with increased thunderstorm coverage will 

return for early next week. No updates. 



&&



.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms in the 

mountains east of KMYL today, decreasing this evening. Scattered mid 

to high level clouds elsewhere. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, with 

gusts to 25 kt across s-central ID this afternoon, then gusts to 25 

kt this evening between KBKE/KONO as a weak front moves through. 

Winds aloft at 10 kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.



KBOI...VFR. A few high clouds. Surface winds W-NW 5-12 kt, with 

gusts 15-20 kt this afternoon.



Weekend Outlook...VFR. Dry with occasional mid to high clouds. 

Surface winds W-NW 5-15 kt, with afternoon gusts to 25 kt across s-

central ID. 



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...

Weak surface cold front from near Missoula/MT through 

Burns/OR, and supported by an upper level short wave trough

in western WA and OR, was still able to produce isolated 

thunderstorms in Adams and western Valley Counties early

this morning. The front and upper trough will move east

today, with the surface front dissipating as it becomes 

parallel to the upper flow. But we will still carry a 

10-20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in 

northern Valley County/ID until sunset, when the upper

trough exits into Montana. After that, no further chance

of showers or thunderstorms in our CWA through Saturday 

night. Today will be 3-5 degrees cooler in eastern OR and

west-central ID, but little if any cooling will be felt 

in southwest and south- central ID. Winds will become 

west/northwest 10-20 mph this afternoon, or not much 

stronger than the usual diurnal winds. A broad but shallow 

upper trough over the eastern Pacific and western North 

America will keep temps near normal through Saturday, 

with skies staying partly cloudy in the north and mostly

clear in the south.



LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Sunday will begin

a warming trend as a flat upper ridge comes in from the 

west. Later Sunday the ridge will amplify not only from

the west but also from the southern Great Basin, while a 

Pacific upper low sets up off southern California. Monday

and Tuesday will be hot with valley high temps 95 to 100 

degrees. Southerly flow aloft between the Pacific low and

the inland ridge will bring mid-level moisture into our 

CWA beginning Sunday night, leading to a 15-25 percent 

chance of high-based, mainly dry thunderstorms Monday, with 

increasing fire-weather danger south of the Snake Basin in

ID and over all of southeast OR. The Pacific low is then 

forecast inland over CA Tuesday, while the hot upper ridge 

breaks down over OR and WA, a process also known to be 

associated with increased fire-weather danger. By then, 

high-based thunderstorms should increase on the Idaho side

as mid-level moisture continues to move north through the

Great Basin. Wednesday and Thursday will continue the 

breakdown of the upper ridge from the northwest, eventually 

leading to a cooling upper trough and drier westerly flow 

over WA and OR. But thunderstorms and hot weather will

likely continue in ID, with a cold front in western ID

possibly enhancing the storms. 



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...None.

OR...None.



&&



$$



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DISCUSSION...SA

AVIATION.....ST

SHORT TERM...LC

LONG TERM....LC

