FXUS65 KBOI 262024

AFDBOI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Boise ID

224 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night... Cold air aloft

is moving to the east this afternoon, with thunderstorms

developing as of 2:00pm MDT over far eastern Valley County, near

Yellow Pine, ID. Westerly winds will pick up in southern valleys

as the front moves out, with a quiet few days of weather on deck

throughout the short term. Temperatures will be a few degrees

above normal through Sunday, with a steady warming and drying 

trend each day. Cloudy conditions will steadily begin to clear

with only a few high clouds forming each day as nearly zonal

flow aloft keeps weather relatively unchanged.



.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Sunday will start to see

the ridge of high pressure building over us, bringing high

temperatures up around 10-15 degrees above normal. By Monday,

the ridge of high pressure will peak, bringing the hottest

temperatures of the period. The Upper Treasure Valley has about

a 60% chance of reaching 100F, with Ontario's forecast high 

right at 100F and the Emmett area peaking for the region at 

104F. 



Models remain in excellent agreement for the Monday-Wednesday

period, with a low off the coast of California setting up a

typical monsoon pattern over the Desert Southwest that will 

push moisture into the region each afternoon. This will allow 

for high-based thunderstorms each day through Wednesday. 

Tuesday will see another trough with an associated cold front 

moving into the northwest, enhancing the thunderstorm risk that 

afternoon. This trough will also accelerate the breakdown of the

ridge, which could provide some increased westerly winds across

the region. This pattern, if it holds in the long term 

forecast, will likely create critical fire weather conditions.



Another shortwave trough looks to move through on Thursday,

which could bring another push of showers and thunderstorms to

the region, with some slight cooling ahead of the 4th of July

holiday. 



&&



.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/thunderstorms in the 

mountains east of KMYL will decrease this evening. Scattered mid to 

high level clouds elsewhere. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, with 

gusts to 25 kt this evening between KBKE/KONO as a weak front moves 

through. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt.



KBOI...VFR. A few high clouds. Surface winds NW 5-12 kt, becoming 

variable less than 8 kt this evening.



Weekend Outlook...VFR. Dry with occasional mid to high clouds. 

Surface winds W-NW 5-15 kt, with afternoon gusts to 25 kt across s-

central ID.



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...None.

OR...None.



&&



$$



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SHORT TERM...SA

LONG TERM....SA

AVIATION.....ST

