FXUS65 KBOU 261840

AFDBOU



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

1240 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...

 

- Drier Thursday through Sunday with warming temperatures and only

  isolated late day showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...

Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025



Showers and storms have formed this afternoon (Wednesday) with 

the strongest storms near the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide.

Across the Denver metro, cloud cover and cooler temperatures are

responsible for keeping the showers and storms quite weak. There

may be weak storms that form over the metro later this afternoon

but they are not expected to be severe. 



Across the Palmer Divide, moderate instability has lead to strong

storms to develop but they are struggling to reach severe limits 

due to the lack of deep layer shear. A storm or two could reach

severe limits in Elbert and Lincoln Counties but the majority of

storms will stay below severe limits there. In Weld County near 

the Cheyenne Ridge, there are a couple of strong to severe storms

forming. There are stronger 500-300 mb winds in far northern

Colorado which is providing better deep layer shear close to 40 

knots. Given moderate instability with mixed-layer CAPE around

1,500 j/kg, storms in the Weld and Morgan Counties may become

briefly severe with large hail the primary concern. Later this

afternoon, storms will likely congeal into a line/MCS and heads

towards the far northeast corner of Colorado. High resolution

model guidance is in good agreement that this MCS will pose a

severe wind threat especially in Logan, Sedgwick, and Phillips

Counties. These storms will also produce heavy rain and it is 

possible the far northeast corner sees localized flooding. QPF and

PoPs were increased over the northeast corner this evening. 



Over the next few days, mid to upper level heights will increase

over Colorado with upper level temperatures increasing as well.

There will be zonal flow and drier air moving in aloft so the

chance for storms will be around 10 percent. The only day of the

next three days that may see organized convection is on Friday

near the eastern Colorado/Nebraska border. Some weak surface

convergence may be enough to generate a line of storms. These

could pose a severe threat in Sedgwick and Phillips Counties.

Otherwise, high temperatures will increase each of the next three

days with the mid 90s expected across the plains on Saturday. 



A low level cold front will move across the area Sunday afternoon.

This will likely cool temperatures a tad on Sunday and with

northeast, upslope winds increasing the chance for storms. Some of

these storms could be strong to severe. Monday will also be cooler

with a chance of storms. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...

Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light winds

today expected to increase out of the southeast in the late

afternoon. Recent high resolution model runs have been more

consistent in showing showers over the terminals this evening.

While these are unlikely to impact the terminals, it is possible

that wind gusts up to 25 knots occur. There will be normal

drainage flow tonight and light winds Friday morning. In the

afternoon on Friday, storms to the southeast of Denver will likely

push an outflow boundary through that has moderate southeast

winds with gusts up to 30 knots. 



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Danielson

AVIATION...Danielson

