FXUS65 KBOU 262337

AFDBOU



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

537 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...

 

- Hot Friday and Saturday with isolated afternoon storms.



- Cooler Sunday and Monday with higher coverage of storms and a

  threat for some of these storms to be strong to severe. 



&&



.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...

Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Water vapor satellite shows dry air over Colorado with southwest

flow aloft. There is some weak subsidence that is limiting

convection this afternoon. However, a few stray storms are forming

over the Palmer Divide and east to northern Lincoln County. High

resolution models are also starting to come into better agreement

that showers will form over the foothills late this afternoon and

into the evening and these showers will move over the I-25

corridor this evening. Brief moderate rain with gusty winds will

be possible with these showers. PoPs were increased to get a

mention of showers in the forecast this evening. 



Temperatures aloft will increase on Friday as light zonal flow

aloft will be in place. This will allow high temperatures to the

reach the low 90s across the I-25 corridor and plains. Model

guidance also suggests a weak low level convergent boundary will 

form generally from Deer Trail to Julesburg. Isolated storms will 

form along this boundary by the late afternoon. Soundings show a 

large boundary layer up to around 600 mb with dry adiabatic lapse 

rates. This suggests strong wind gusts up to 60 mph will be 

possible with the strongest storms especially north and east of 

Akron. Elsewhere, a few light showers and weak storms could form 

over the higher terrain and move onto the adjacent plains. 



Saturday will be very similar to Friday as hot temperatures and

isolated storms will again be possible. Gusty winds will be the

main threat from these storms. 



A cold front seems likely to move through the northeast plains on

Sunday bringing northeast winds. The majority of guidance 

indicates dew points may be in the 60s and upper 50s behind this 

front. Given the upslope winds and moderate instability, it is

expected that storm coverage will increase with 30-40% coverage.

An upper level jet will pass to the north of Colorado on Sunday

and may help to increase the deep layer shear close to the WY/CO

and NE/CO borders. Some storms may be strong to severe in far

northern Colorado with large hail and damaging wind gusts the

primary threat. 



Monday will have east-southeast winds across the plains with

healthy dew points. Moderate instability will be under a strong

cap due to a ridge and warm temperatures aloft. The upslope flow 

may help to generate storms in the foothills but it is uncertain 

if the storms will be able to survive on the plains. Monday will 

be the coolest day of the 7 day forecast. 



A ridge aloft will strengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday and highs

will increase to normal. Isolated storms will likely develop over

the higher terrain each day. 



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...

Issued at 534 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Southeasterly

winds will gradually turn to southerly drainage through the

evening, generally remaining near or below 10 kts. There's a small

chance (~20%) of isolated high-based showers developing over the

Denver metro mid-evening. Confidence is not high enough to include

more than VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Any convection would

likely be on the weaker side. Light winds will prevail tomorrow

morning with prevailing flow becoming southeasterly entering the

afternoon. Weak high-based convection could occur after ~22Z Fri 

but coverage is likely to be spotty and intensity very weak.



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Danielson

AVIATION...Rodriguez

