FXUS65 KCYS 261738

AFDCYS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY

1138 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated shower chances expected Thursday, mainly along the

  I-25 corridor.



- Warmer and drier weather expected Friday through the weekend,

  with a slight chance for daily afternoon showers and storms.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 304 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025





The shortwave has kicked off the storms around 18-19z in Albany

county. The bulk shear today is pretty minimal maxing around 

35kts resulting in pulsy/messy thunderstorms this afternoon as 

they slowly push east through Wyoming. Models put about 2000 

j/kg in the Nebraska Panhandle where these struggling storms are

expected to organize and become more linear. However, the 

panhandle was clouded over this morning and early afternoon so 

there is some uncertainty on how unstable the Panhandle will 

actually become for storm cell organization. SPC did upgrade our

southern portion of the panhandle into a slight risk with the 

main threat being hail and wind. Thursday, our flow turns from 

southwesterly under the trough to westerly downslope behind the 

departing trough. The downsloping flow may keep the lower levels

dry enough to not expect precipitation in the afternoon despite

the short lived ridge pushing through allowing for some 

moisture advection and some modest CAPE in the Panhandle. Winds 

should be calmer as well underneath this short lived ridge.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 304 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025



The long term remains active as we see temperatures fluctuate

thanks to several smaller systems able to keep hotter and warmer

ridging at bay, giving us a near daily shot at showers and

thunderstorms as well. Friday will begin with temperatures 

starting to warm back into the mid 80's to mid 90's across the 

CWA with a meager chance at a shower or thunderstorm, strongest 

in the Nebraska Panhandle. That being said, the environment 

would be supportive of some stronger activity as storms 

initialize in this area, but if they do they'll have limited 

time to strengthen before exiting our area. That changes on 

Saturday as we see a jet max over the north-central US 

providing the forcing needed to resume showers and thunderstorms

for the region, as well as bringing a shot of cooler air to end

the weekend - but not before we see our warmest day of the 

period overall, with highs into the upper 80's to mid 90's. But 

as the cold front pushes through, storms along and ahead of this

feature will be possible and could promote a few instances of 

stronger activity, but the best environment still lies just to 

our east limiting any potential for severe activity.



Moving into Sunday we should see a cooling trend that will

continue into Monday, with highs not expected to eclipse 90 at

this time. And on Monday itself, highs should only reach the

70's to 80's thanks to the cooler flow behind the front

alongside the assistance of daily showers and storms from the

Laramie Range eastwards. Some favorable instability with a

couple more shortwaves should fuel a few more thunderstorms for

the day, and once again we can't rule out a stronger storm or

two but the environment still isn't prime for stronger severe

weather. Ridging starts to build back in on Monday, so by 

Tuesday expect widespread 80's with some near 90's to start 

building back in as we move into July. Embedded weaker 

disturbances could once again fuel some showers or storms, but 

the expectation of stronger to severe activity seems once again 

limited at this time.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1127 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. FEW to SCT

clouds at mid levels expected this afternoon, and should begin

clearing overnight. Some precipitation may form off of the high

terrain this afternoon and most eastwards, most likely impacting

KLAR and KCYS. Some of these showers could make their way over

to the Nebraska Panhandle, but probabilities are too low to

include in TAFs at this time. Any showers or possible

thunderstorms that do impact sites could briefly lower

visibilities and CIGs.



&&



.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MM

LONG TERM...CG

AVIATION...CG

