FXUS65 KFGZ 261724

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

1024 AM MST Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions

continue through the weekend, outside of light afternoon showers

around the White Mountains. More widespread shower and thunderstorm

activity looks to set in by the middle of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Today...The trough that has been situated to the 

west begins to lift and weaken today. Southwesterly flow looks to 

usher in drier air across much of the area, outside of some 

lingering moisture across the White Mountains. Thus, dry and 

warmer conditions are expected again today, with only a slight 

chance for high-based showers and possibly a thunderstorm around 

the White Mountains this afternoon.



Friday through Monday...Heights begin to rise for the end of the 

week and into next week as high pressure starts to build over the 

southwest. Temperatures look to begin to rise over the weekend and 

into early next week, ushering in a return of more seasonable to 

slight above normal temperatures. Some heat headlines may be needed 

for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon over the weekend as 

highs look to exceed 110F by Sunday. Dry conditions look to prevail 

each day as well, with mainly only a slight chance for high-based 

showers over the White Mountains each afternoon. A bit more activity 

could be possible during the afternoon Monday, depending on how much 

moisture is able to be advected northward at this point.



Tuesday onward...Another weak trough looks to setup just off the 

California coast near the start of next week. While at the same 

time, a potential tropical system passes just off the tip of the 

Baja California peninsula, potentially driving a surge of moisture 

northward along the Gulf of California. With the increased southerly 

flow over Arizona, this plume of sub-tropical moisture is expected 

to be advected northward into Arizona. Thus, daily chances for 

showers and thunderstorms are expected over much of the higher 

terrain starting as early as Tuesday and continuing through the rest 

of the week. The onset of the monsoon appears to be upon us!



&&



.AVIATION...Thursday 26/18Z through Friday 27/18Z...VFR conditions

expected, only precipitation chances are a few isolated high based

thunderstorms over the White Mountains during the afternoon hours.

Winds SW 10-15kts, gusts to 20kts during the day, light and

variable or terrain driven overnight.



OUTLOOK...Friday 27/18Z through Sunday 29/18Z...VFR conditions

expected, only precipitation chances are a few isolated high based

thunderstorms over the White Mountains on Friday afternoon. Winds

SW-W 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts each day, light and variable or

terrain driven overnight.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Mainly dry and warm conditions, 

outside of a slight chance for high-based showers and thunderstorms 

near the White Mountains each afternoon. Winds southwest 5-15 mph 

with gusts to around 20 mph each afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds 

possible in and around thunderstorms. 



Saturday through Monday...Warmer and mainly dry conditions. Wind 

west/southwest winds 5-15 mph and afternoon minimum RH values 5-15% 

each day.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...Humphreys

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff

