FXUS65 KFGZ 262129

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

229 PM MST Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions

continue through the weekend, outside of light afternoon showers

around the White Mountains. More widespread shower and thunderstorm

activity looks to set in by the middle of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...A mostly dry and warmer weather pattern is expected

the remainder of this week and into the weekend. A gradual

increase in monsoonal moisture is expected next week.



Very typical late June weather is being observed this afternoon

with dry conditions, light southerly breezes, and near average

temperatures. This pattern will continue through the upcoming

weekend as very weak troughing is replaced by a building ridge of

high pressure. Temperatures will increase, reaching their peak on

Sunday/Monday. Lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and Yavapai

County are starting to show potential for reaching extreme heat

criteria. The one caveat to the dry conditions will be the White

Mountains region, which is just close enough to the moisture over

New Mexico, to see an isolated shower or thunderstorm this 

afternoon and again Friday. 



The high pressure circulation is forecast to build over Arizona through

early next week centering near the Four Corners by Monday/Tuesday.

This, combined with a potential tropical system moving northward

along the Baja California peninsula, look to spur the northward 

flow of moisture into Arizona, and thus the start of monsoon

season. We expect a gradual increase in moisture as early as 

Monday, with deeper moisture potential by the mid to latter part 

of next week. Precipitation chances return on Monday mostly for

eastern Arizona, and then increase and spread westward Tuesday and

beyond. As is typical with monsoon season, there will be a threat

for dry lightning, especially on Monday, but potential for wetting

rain increases by Wednesday/Thursday. The one complicating factor

is another weak trough forecast to develop just to our west next

week. Depending on how far east the trough moves, this could lead

to fluctuations in moisture through the week. Right now, the

potential for greatest precipitation appears to be over eastern

and central portions of the state. Ensemble guidance favors a

consensus of monsoon moisture remaining in the region at least

into the second week of July.



&&



.AVIATION...Thursday 26/18Z through Friday 27/18Z...VFR conditions

expected, only precipitation chances are a few isolated high based

thunderstorms over the White Mountains during the afternoon hours.

Winds SW 10-15kts, gusts to 20kts during the day, light and

variable or terrain driven overnight.



OUTLOOK...Friday 27/18Z through Sunday 29/18Z...VFR conditions

expected, only precipitation chances are a few isolated high based

thunderstorms over the White Mountains on Friday afternoon. Winds

SW-W 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts each day, light and variable or

terrain driven overnight.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Mainly dry and warm 

conditions, outside of a slight chance for high-based showers and 

thunderstorms near the White Mountains on Friday. Minimum RH values 

between 5-15% each day. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph 

each afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around 

thunderstorms. 



Sunday through Tuesday...Warmer and mainly dry conditions on Sunday. 

Could see a few high based thunderstorms over the White Mountains, 

Chuskas and East Mogollon Rim Monday as some Monsoon moisture begins 

to sneak in.  A chance of thunderstorms area wide is possible 

Tuesday as more monsoon moisture moves in.  Minimum RH values 5-15% 

on Sunday and Monday, increasing to 15-25% on Tuesday.  Wind SW-W 5-

15 mph Sunday and Monday, S-SW 5-15 mph Tuesday.  Gusty, erratic 

winds possible in and around thunderstorms.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...MCT

AVIATION...Bernhart

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff

