FXUS65 KFGZ 262335

AFDFGZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ

436 PM MST Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions

continue through the weekend, outside of light afternoon showers

around the White Mountains. More widespread shower and thunderstorm

activity looks to set in by the middle of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...A mostly dry and warmer weather pattern is expected

the remainder of this week and into the weekend. A gradual

increase in monsoonal moisture is expected next week.



Very typical late June weather is being observed this afternoon

with dry conditions, light southerly breezes, and near average

temperatures. This pattern will continue through the upcoming

weekend as very weak troughing is replaced by a building ridge of

high pressure. Temperatures will increase, reaching their peak on

Sunday/Monday. Lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and Yavapai

County are starting to show potential for reaching extreme heat

criteria. The one caveat to the dry conditions will be the White

Mountains region, which is just close enough to the moisture over

New Mexico, to see an isolated shower or thunderstorm this 

afternoon and again Friday. 



The high pressure circulation is forecast to build over Arizona 

through early next week centering near the Four Corners by 

Monday/Tuesday. This, combined with a potential tropical system 

moving northward along the Baja California peninsula, look to spur 

the northward flow of moisture into Arizona, and thus the start of 

monsoon season. We expect a gradual increase in moisture as early as 

Monday, with deeper moisture potential by the mid to latter part of 

next week. Precipitation chances return on Monday mostly for eastern 

Arizona, and then increase and spread westward Tuesday and beyond. 

As is typical with monsoon season, there will be a threat for dry 

lightning, especially on Monday, but potential for wetting rain 

increases by Wednesday/Thursday. The one complicating factor is 

another weak trough forecast to develop just to our west next week. 

Depending on how far east the trough moves, this could lead to 

fluctuations in moisture through the week. Right now, the potential 

for greatest precipitation appears to be over eastern and central 

portions of the state. Ensemble guidance favors a consensus of 

monsoon moisture remaining in the region at least into the second 

week of July.



&&



.AVIATION...Friday 27/00Z through Saturday 28/00Z...Expect VFR 

conditions. Areas CU/TCU over southern Apache County dissipating by 

02Z, redeveloping by 18Z-20Z Friday. ISOLD high-based -SHRA/-TSRA 

possible INVOF the White Mtns for the same time frame. Daytime sfc 

winds S-SW10-20kts.



OUTLOOK...Saturday 28/00Z through Monday 30/00Z...Expect VFR 

conditions. Daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20kts.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Mainly dry and warm 

conditions, outside of a slight chance for high-based showers and 

thunderstorms near the White Mountains on Friday. Minimum RH values 

between 5-15% each day. Winds SW-W 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph 

each afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around 

thunderstorms. 



Sunday through Tuesday...Warmer and mainly dry conditions on Sunday. 

Could see a few high based thunderstorms over the White Mountains, 

Chuskas and East Mogollon Rim Monday as some Monsoon moisture begins 

to sneak in.  A chance of thunderstorms area wide is possible 

Tuesday as more monsoon moisture moves in.  Minimum RH values 5-15% 

on Sunday and Monday, increasing to 15-25% on Tuesday.  Wind SW-W 5-

15 mph Sunday and Monday, S-SW 5-15 mph Tuesday.  Gusty, erratic 

winds possible in and around thunderstorms.



&&



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...MCT

AVIATION...Peterson

FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart



For Northern Arizona weather information visit

weather.gov/flagstaff

