FXUS65 KPIH 262320

AFDPIH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pocatello ID

520 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy afternoons today through Saturday.



- Afternoon highs 4 to 9 degrees above normal through the

  weekend, and 10 to 15 degrees above normal to start the week.



- Showers and thunderstorms possible by mid week next week with

  monsoonal moisture increase.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Satellite imagery shows shortwave pushing through East Idaho this 

afternoon. Radar shows scattered coverage of weak echoes mainly 

across the northwest half of the forecast area, but steep dew point 

depressions and very dry soundings indicate mostly virga, generally 

confirmed by area web cams. Would not be surprised for any 

particular location across the central mountains or along the Divide 

to catch a sprinkle or two along with a clap of thunder, but overall 

dry (but locally gusty) conditions are expected. Similar conditions 

are anticipated Friday, but any potential convective development 

looks confined to areas along the Divide.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Flow turns generally zonal Saturday, followed by development of a 

ridge of high pressure building through the intermountain west 

Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures begin their climb into the 

lower to mid 90s by Monday/Tuesday. Tuesday still looks to be the 

warmest day, with latest NBM probabilities supporting >75% 

probability of reaching or exceeding 95 degrees for a wide swath of 

the Snake Plain, but especially across the Lower Snake, Eastern 

Magic Valley, Raft River, and Cache Valley locations. Upper ridge 

shifts slightly to the east Tuesday, allowing moisture to push into 

the region ahead of slowly advancing Pacific trough. Ensembles 

currently paint isolated thunderstorms across portions of East Idaho 

Tuesday, increasing slightly for Wednesday and Thursday. 

Temperatures are expected to cool SLIGHTLY Wednesday and

Thursday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 519 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR conditions forecast throughout the period with less than 10 

percent chance of isolated storms or showers areawide. Winds will 

trend light and variable this evening before increasing again Friday 

afternoon with gusts ranging 20 to 30 kts. Mid and high clouds will 

generally remain FEW to SCT, with most cloud cover expected further 

north at KSUN.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Warm and predominantly dry conditions will continue across 

eastern Idaho through the weekend under the increasing influence

of high pressure and prevailing southwest flow. As another 

shortwave trough passes overhead today, isolated showers and 

thunderstorms will be possible in the Central Mountains, Upper 

Snake River Plain, and Eastern Highlands as conditions remain 

mostly dry overall. Winds will be breezy Thursday through 

Saturday, peaking each afternoon, which coupled with low 

relative humidities in the teens and 20s, support elevated fire 

weather conditions. Near critical fire weather conditions will 

be possible across portions of Idaho FWZ 425/427 where fuels are

approaching critical. Wind gusts will peak Thursday through 

Saturday each afternoon around 25-45 mph, strongest in 410/476.



The warmest airmass so far this year will build in starting 

Monday with highs reaching the 80s to upper 90s across lower 

elevations as afternoon relative humidities drop to the single 

digits and teens. Increasing confidence for next week starting 

Tuesday and Wednesday supports a broad Pacific trough moving 

onshore, tapping into monsoonal moisture associated with a Four 

Corners High. This is reflected well in the latest 6-10 and 8-14

Day Outlooks which favor above normal precipitation across the 

SW CONUS up into Idaho. While exact details will come into focus

over the coming days, this pattern would support daily showers 

and thunderstorms and an increase in relative humidities, as 

warm, above normal temperatures continue. That temperature trend

is reflected well in these outlooks as well which favor 

continued above normal temperatures into early July.



&&



.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DMH

LONG TERM...DMH

AVIATION...Cropp

FIRE WEATHER...MacKay

