FXUS65 KPUB 261731

AFDPUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

1131 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Drying and warming trend sets in Today and last into the weekend. 



- Some isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms possible

  today, mainly over the southeast mountains and near the Raton

  Mesa area.



- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected for Saturday, mainly

  over the eastern mountains, the Pikes Peak region, and the 

  Raton Mesa. Temperatures remain a few degrees warmer than 

  normal.



- A pattern change arrives Sunday, leading to a period of near

  to below normal temperatures, and daily chances for widespread

  showers and storms through much of next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Today-Tonight...



Upper-level trough will move off to the northeast today, leaving us 

with disorganized zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will increase a bit 

today, with highs in the mid-80s to low-90s over the plains, and 70s-

80s over the high valleys and elevated areas. A generally drier 

airmass will move in from the west as well, as some short-lived high 

pressure builds in over the western half of Colorado. Expect a 

decrease in thunderstorm coverage and intensity compared to 

yesterday. Best chances for precipitation will be a slight chance 

for some isolated to scattered storms. These storms will form in the 

mid-afternoon hours, primarily over our southeast mountains and the 

Raton Mesa area due to a disturbance in the flow over New Mexico. 

Given the generally low dewpoints, storms won't last long, mainly 

producing gusty outflow winds and possibly some small hail. Best 

storm coverage will be over our southern border, with slightly 

better moisture remaining over Las Animas and Baca Counties. Any 

lingering convection will come to an end this evening into the early 

overnight hours, with low temperatures remaining in the 50s-60s over 

the plains, and in the 40s over the mountain valleys.





Friday...



Drying trend will persist into Friday as high pressure slowly builds 

in from the south and west. Chances for showers are lower still on 

Friday, with some isolated-scattered POPs over the Pikes Peak Region 

and the Raton later in the afternoon. Any storms that do manage to 

form will be relatively weak, mainly producing gusty outflow winds. 

Meanwhile, low dewpoints at the surface will keep conditions dry, 

though fairly light winds will limit any fire weather concerns at 

this time. For temperatures, highs increase again moving towards the 

end of the week, with high-80s to 90s over the plains and low-80s 

over the valleys.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Friday Night and Saturday..



Convection looks to taper early in the evening hours of Friday, 

clearing from west to east across our far eastern plains by around 

9pm or so at the latest. Overnight lows will be very close to 

normal, cooling into the 60s across the eastern plains, 50s for the 

I-25 corridor, and 40s for mountain valleys. Models continue to show 

a transition period for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds 

in over the southwest, and eventually centers itself over the Four 

Corners region next week. This will mean messy southwest flow with 

slightly above normal temperatures and southerly flow at the surface 

for Saturday. Highs look to climb into the 90s across much of the 

plains, with 80s for the northern and southern I-25 corridors, and 

80s for mountain valleys as well. Showers and storms look increase 

in coverage slightly from Friday, but will likely remain isolated 

and mainly confined the higher country, the Pikes Peak region, and 

the Raton Mesa for Saturday afternoon. 



Sunday Onwards..



Models continue to depict shortwave energy traversing the region on 

Sunday, along with a cold frontal passage sometime Sunday evening. 

Showers and thunderstorms look to increase in coverage on Sunday, 

with scattered coverage expected over portions of the high country. 

Depending on cold frontal timing, we will likely see another day of 

slightly above normal temperatures on Sunday before the front 

arrives, with most plains locations still climbing into the 80s and 

90s. Behind the front, temperatures fall back down into the 4 to 6 

degrees cooler than normal range for Monday and Tuesday. Highs both 

days are likely to remain in the 80s over both the plains and our 

mountain valleys. Chances for near or below normal temperatures and 

widespread, persistent showers and storms increase for much of next 

week in fact, as models continue to build high pressure over the 

Four Corners region with a low off the California coast. With the 

low sitting off the coast and the pattern persistence not quite yet 

known, this forecaster is hesitant to officially call next week's 

setup the start of the monsoon, however, it does show promising 

signs of bringing some much needed "monsoon-looking" moisture to the 

region, especially to our southwest mountains.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs with diurnal wind cycle of

12 kts or less. Low risk of a -tsra over Pikes Peak Region/Palmer

Divide this afternoon, though activity looks too isolated to 

include in the KCOS taf at this point. 



&&



.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO

LONG TERM...EHR

AVIATION...PETERSEN

