FXUS65 KREV 261718

AFDREV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Reno NV

1018 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...

 

* Generally dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the 

  week with elevated to locally critical fire weather concerns today.



* Temperatures around seasonal averages, then gradually rise to 

  above average this weekend. 



* Early next week, rain and storm chances return, while above

  average temperatures persist for early July.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



Looking at ensemble guidance, both the EC and GFS are depicting a 

trough slung across Baja California, while a weak shortwave provides 

a glancing blow to our north. This setup will determine our weather 

in the days to come. First, the shortwave is in position to boost 

our afternoon zephyr winds, with gusts in western Nevada approaching 

30 mph this afternoon. Gusts along Sierra ridges could reach 35 mph. 

This pattern will keep us mostly dry, although NAM guidance is 

suggesting an isolated shower could appear over the Sierra in Mono 

County, less than a 5% chance for this outcome. With dry air in 

place over many days, relative humidity will remain low, around 5-

15% across much of western Nevada. This is the area of focus for 

elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions for 3-6 hours 

today. Relative humidity over the Sierra will range 10-25%, so less 

concern over these areas. 



Friday through Sunday a gradual and steady warmup takes hold as high 

pressure dominates the region. Temperatures over western Nevada 

valleys could approach 100 degrees by Sunday, with Sierra valleys 

well into the upper 80s to low 90s. Monday looks just as hot. Due to 

this building heat, a Moderate HeatRisk is expected for Sunday and 

Monday. Speaking of Sunday and Monday, showers begin to arrive to NE 

CA and far NW NV, along the OR border. It isn't until Tuesday that 

the aforementioned trough over Baja California finally makes it's 

way into our forecast notes. There are several model solutions in 

disagreement as to how this will play out over our region, but gusty 

winds and afternoon showers seem to be a persistent theme across 

most ensemble guidance. Details on the 'where' and 'when' of 

the system will emerge in the coming days. HRICH



&&



.AVIATION...



VFR conditions prevail for all terminals today, with westerly 

afternoon gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV,

most likely between 26/21Z-27/03Z. KMMH has a less than 5% chance

for isolated showers today. If a shower does form, gusty and 

erratic winds may materialize in the vicinity. Best chances will 

be between 26/21Z-27/03Z. 



-HRICH/Giralte



&&



.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NV...None.

CA...None.

&&



$$

