FXUS65 KTWC 262213

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

313 PM MST Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon and evening chances for showers and 

thunderstorms are possible daily through Friday in eastern 

locations, mainly closer to the New Mexico border. Temperatures 

become hotter this weekend as conditions dry out. Moisture is 

expected to increase next week and likely bring the start to the 

monsoon season.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Doppler radar this afternoon showed isolated

showers/thunderstorms along/near the AZ/NM border. One slow moving

cell over the Chiricahua Mtns has produced almost 2" of rain per 

MRMS as of this writing. This prompted a Flash flood warning to 

be issue. This area in where nearly 1" of PW resides. There will 

be a continued threat for isolated heavy rainers near AZ/NM border

into this evening.



Friday: Far eastern areas remain on the western edge of deeper

moisture that is over NM for a continued slight chance of

afternoon/evening storms. Elsewhere dry with highs a few degrees

above normal.



This weekend into Monday: Heating up as an upper level high 

builds over the region bringing another round of near record 

highs and Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk. Went ahead of 

hoisted up Extreme Heat Watch for the lower deserts (Pima, SE 

Pinal and Graham counties). Highs will be the hottest on Monday 

ranging 108 to 113 degrees. Convection wise any storms that 

develop this weekend will be near the International border of 

Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Monday will see a slight uptick 

in thunderstorm chances east and south of Tucson.



Tuesday through Thursday: Moisture values increase each day as

MCS's that develop south of the International border send outflow

boundaries north across the area. With the increase in moisture 

there is the increased threat of isolated heavy rainers and flash 

flooding. Can't rule out the other thunderstorm impacts of strong

gusty winds and blowing dust. Game on next week for Monsoon '25.



&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 28/00Z.

W of KTUS...SKC. KTUS E...SCT clouds around 10k ft AGL with

isold -SHRA/TS near AZ/NM border, diminishing after 27/03z then

developing again after 27/19z. Isold gusts up to 40 kts nr -TSRA

otherwise winds light and under 12 kts with an ocnl aftn gust up 

to 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms 

through tomorrow east of Tucson. Minimum relative humidities from

10 to 20 percent today and tomorrow, with a drying and warming 

trend this weekend. Winds generally light and under 15 mph with 

isolated gusts up to 45 mph under any thunderstorm through Friday.

Moisture should begin to arrive next week and bring a start to 

the monsoon season across southeastern Arizona. 



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

 Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening 

  for AZZ501-502-504>506-509.



&&



$$



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