FXUS65 KVEF 261647

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

947 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Temperatures gradually rising near to above normal through early 

  next week, resulting in Moderate HeatRisk.



* Slow return of moisture next week, with thunderstorm chances 

  increasing for Mohave County as early as Tuesday and spreading 

  farther northwest later in the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday. 



Early morning satellite loop showed clear skies areawide. Surface

obs showed light winds and temperatures about five degrees warmer

than 24 hours ago. Overall, there is very little change to 

forecast reasoning through early next week. High pressure slowly 

building in from the southeast will lead to temperatures gradually

rising through the weekend into early next week. Yesterday was 

probably the last sub-100 degree high temperature at KLAS until a 

thunderstorm day occurs. (More on that shortly.) Despite the 

rising highs, since we are well into the hot season and within a 

few degrees of the climatological peak heat of summer, HeatRisk 

only climbs into the Moderate category except for a few splotches 

of Major on Monday. As noted by previous shifts, this looks too 

isolated in space and time to justify any heat headlines, but will

keep an eye on it. The building ridge to the east plus weak low 

pressure approaching from the Pacific will combine to bring a weak

influx of monsoon moisture into Mohave County as early as 

Tuesday, with chances for thunderstorms slowly increasing and 

expanding farther west Tuesday and Wednesday. For three straight 

days, the GFS ensembles have been more bullish on this scenario 

than the ECMWF. With each passing day, the NBM has been trending a

bit slower/more bearish with the onset of PoPs. Will continue to 

watch trends in the details, but the main message is that 

thunderstorm season is almost here. 



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds 

will remain light following typical diurnal directional patterns 

through the morning hours. South-southeasterly breezes will pick up 

in the afternoon with sustained speeds around 10 knots and wind 

gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Wind direction will fluctuate between 

130 and 180 degrees during the afternoon. By sunset, winds should 

return to their typical south-southwest direction. Clear skies with 

temperatures exceeding 100F between 21z and 02z, peaking around 

102F. 



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and 

southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...South- 

southeast breezes will pick up across much of the area this 

afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots. The exception to this is the

western Mojave Desert where winds will remain relatively light, 

following typical diurnal directional trends through the afternoon.

Winds will pick up and flip back to the west-southwest around 

sunset with wind gusts around 25 knots continuing into the evening

hours. VFR conditions under mostly clear skies across the region,

with just a few mid-level and high clouds over the southern Great

Basin.



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Morgan

AVIATION...Stessman



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