FXUS66 KMTR 261748

AFDMTR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

1048 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New AVIATION, MARINE...



.SYNOPSIS...

Issued at 902 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Seasonal temperatures with night and morning stratus will continue

into next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 902 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Much less stratus coverage this morning with the marine layer

around 1100 feet and mainly impacting SF Bay and Monterey Bay

region with lots more sunshine for the North Bay this morning. 

Local northeast winds aloft are coming off Mt Saint Helena and

ushering in drier air and sunny skies across the North Bay this

morning. Low clouds in the Berkeley hills should erode shortly

while the Salinas Valley clouds are starting to slowly mix out.



In general expect a few degrees of a warming trend for inland

areas today with some earlier sunshine even with continued onshore

wind pattern.



Expect the marine layer to continue to compress to less than 1000

feet into Friday. This in combination with building ridge should

lead to inland highs back into the lower to mid 90s for places

like Santa Rosa, Concord and Livermore just in time for a nice

summer weekend. Models suggest a decent cool down by Sunday as a

weak trough off the coast induces a cool southwesterly onshore

push for places like Santa Rosa and Napa. Next weeks forecast will

revolve around that upper low. Will check over the 12z models and

focus on the extended for the afternoon packages.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 227 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Another June day on tap with temperatures generally near seasonal

normals. The marine layer is currently being observed at 1,100 

feet on the Fort Ord profiler with satellite showing stratus along

the Pacific Coast, through the Golden Gate Gap, and down the 

Northern Salinas Valley. Expect stratus to retreat towards the 

coast by late-morning with some mist/drizzle possible until then. 

Your weather nugget of the day is that the 00Z 06/26/2025 weather 

balloon recorded a precipitable water value of 0.42 inches, that 

is below the 10th percentile (0.48 inches) for the day.



A Coastal Flood Advisory (the last one of this astronomical high 

tide sequence) is in effect from 11PM Thursday through 2AM Friday 

for Bayshore locations of the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay 

for minor coastal flooding during nocturnal high tide. Known impacts 

occur in Bayside Marin County where coastal locations next to 

Richardson Bay such as Sausalito, Tam Valley, Manzanita, the 

Sausalito-Mill Valley Bike Path, and the Manzanita Park N Ride 

experience localized flooding. As always, do not drive around 

barricades or through water of unknown depth.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 227 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Typical June Gloom/No Sky July long term forecast on tap with one 

caveat... 



Global ensemble clusters are in agreement of an upper-level 

shortwave trough making its way into our area late weekend into 

early next week. All three deterministic models (Canadian, ECMWF, 

and GFS) show a negatively-tilted 582 dam upper-level cutoff low off 

our coast at 12Z (5AM) Monday. While that may sound exciting, as of 

now there's no mentionable precipitation or thunderstorm chances. 

Precipitable water values are forecast to increase, but point model 

soundings show 0 CAPE, so instability seems to be the missing 

ingredient from the three ingredients method (lift, instability, 

moisture). As is typical with cutoff lows, they are notoriously 

difficult to forecast due to their lack of jet stream support. Add 

in an active Eastern Pacific Basin and the forecast becomes even 

more complex - which is what we are dealing with!



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



MVFR currently at MRY, OAK and SFO with clearing anticipated by 19Z-

1930Z. Low ceilings (LIFR/IFR) at HAF that may linger through much 

of the day. Winds increase this afternoon with gusty conditions at 

most terminals, easing overnight and into Friday morning. However, 

low clouds (IFR/MVFR with the greatest potential for LIFR at MRY and 

SNS) are forecast to return to the Bay Area and Monterey Bay 

terminals by late evening or early Friday morning. Any low ceilings 

that do develop will clear out late Friday morning with increasing 

onshore winds.



Vicinity of SFO...MVFR returning to VFR by late morning. Onshore 

winds increase once again this afternoon with gusts currently 

forecast to be 31 kt. Winds ease after sunset with a return to 

IFR/MVFR ceilings. Any low clouds that do develop will 

scatter out by 18Z Friday. Moderate confidence.



SFO Bridge Approach....The San Mateo Bridge Approach will likely 

remain clear though the TAF period; however, low stratus clouds 

between OAK, SFO, and northward through the Golden Gate Bridge are 

forecast to return late this evening and into Friday morning.



Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR at MRY returning to VFR by late 

morning. Onshore winds increase this afternoon before easing late in 

the evening. IFR/MVFR ceilings likely to return late this evening 

and potentially lowering to LIFR early Friday morning. High 

confidence.



&&



.MARINE...

(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes with near-gale force gusts

will continue through Friday. Gale force gusts can be expected

near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur this

afternoon and evening. Moderate to rough seas will also continue

through Friday, with northwesterly winds easing over the weekend.



&&



.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT 

     Friday for CAZ006-506-508.



PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.



     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt 

     Reyes 0-10 nm.



     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 

     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.



     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos 

     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.



     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt 

     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.



     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 

     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.



&&



$$



UPDATE.......RWW

SHORT TERM...Sarment

LONG TERM....Sarment

AVIATION...RGass

MARINE...RGass



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