FXUS66 KOTX 261749

AFDOTX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Spokane WA

1049 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy winds across Central and Eastern Washington through

  Saturday.



- Occasional rounds of scattered showers over the northern

  mountains Thursday and Friday afternoons.



- Much warmer temperatures Sunday into early next week with 

  Moderate and Major HeatRisk on Monday and Tuesday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Update to the Aviation section. Breezy and cool conditions

will continue as weather systems track over the region.



&&



.SYNOPSIS...

Weak weather systems will continue to pass over the region

through Saturday. A chance of showers will occur over the 

northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle, with a few thunderstorms

possible along the Canadian border. Seasonal normal temperatures

will end the work week with much warmer temperatures expected

through early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Thursday and Friday: The Pacific Northwest will remain under a broad 

upper level trough for Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the 

70s to low 80s across the Inland Northwest. Weak waves embedded in 

this broad trough will bring another round of afternoon showers 

primarily across the northern mountains Thursday afternoon and 

evening. Confidence in shower development decreases further south 

with a 10-20% chance for showers across southeast Washington and the 

southern/central Panhandle in the late afternoon and evening. Weaker 

mid-level lapse rates due to thicker cloud cover will limit overall 

instability for Thursday afternoon with a 10-20% chance for thunder 

confined to far northeast Washington along the Canadian border. 

Showers will reemerge Friday afternoon as well, but warming 

temperatures aloft will shrink coverage. Cross-Cascade surface 

pressure gradients will remain tight through Friday in response to 

persistent onshore flow and a deepening marine layer over western 

Washington.  Winds will pick up each afternoon and evening across 

central Washington as a response with wind gusts up to 35 mph. 

Across eastern Washington, sufficient boundary layer mixing up to 

750-700mb looks to support wind gusts 25 to 30 mph in the 

afternoons. 



Saturday through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement for the 

trough to exit to the east on Saturday as an upper level ridge 

amplifies over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will trend warmer 

Saturday into early next week with widespread high temperatures in 

the 90s to low 100s on Monday and Tuesday. For Monday, the National 

Blend of Models is giving the L-C Valley and lower parts of the 

Columbia Basin a 60+ percent chance for highs above 100F. 

Probabilities remain similar on Tuesday, but increase to 50-60% for 

downtown and north Spokane. HeatRisk will be in the Minor to 

Moderate category for Sunday, then increasing to Moderate to Major 

for Monday and Tuesday. Major HeatRisk will be favored across much 

of central Washington and the L-C Valley both days with Major 

HeatRisk sneaking into the Spokane-Coeur dAlene metro area on 

Tuesday. Temperatures will remain warm into Wednesday, however 

confidence in the exact values begins to wane with an increase in 

the ensemble spread on the evolution of the upper level ridge. This 

can be seen in the spread between the 25th to 75th percentiles for 

max temperatures, which increases from 4-5F on Tuesday to 7-11F on 

Wednesday to 10-14F on Thursday.



Deterministic models continue to hint at the potential for elevated 

convection early Tuesday, but confidence in this occurring remains 

low.  Ensembles are in good agreement on the presence of an upper 

level low over California, with uncertainty remaining in the exact 

placement and overall strength by early to mid next week. If this 

low hovers further north, increasing southerly flow into Oregon and 

Washington would allow for monsoonal moisture to advect into the 

region, which would then increase elevated instability. Combined 

with orographics and modest lift from the low, this would introduce 

favorable conditions for elevated thunderstorms over the mountains. 

While this is not the most likely scenario at this point with the 

current forecast keeping PoPs and thunder chances between 10%, this 

potential will continue to be monitored over the next couple of 

days. /vmt



&&



.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue for all TAF sites with 

mid to high level clouds passing through. Low cloud bases can be

expected along the Washington Cascade crest as ample moisture 

pushes in from the west banking up against the crest. Breezy 

west to southwest winds will continue for central Washington 

into the evening hours and slacken off overnight. Expect 

afternoon breeziness again across eastern Washington and central

Washington on Friday with wind gusts up to 25 knots especially 

from KEAT-KMWH and near KLWS TAF sites through the east slopes 

of the Cascades, Central Basin and southeast Washington.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence

of VFR conditions for all TAF sites. Moderate confidence on

timing of winds increasing today and decreasing tonight so there

could be an hour or two variability on when that occurs. 



-----------------------



Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance

Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance

High - Greater than a 70 percent chance



For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane

airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our 

webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard



&&



.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Spokane        78  54  77  52  80  53 /  10  10   0   0   0   0 

Coeur d'Alene  78  55  75  53  78  52 /  10  20  10   0   0   0 

Pullman        75  50  74  48  76  49 /  10  10   0   0   0   0 

Lewiston       84  60  83  59  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0   0 

Colville       77  45  74  43  79  44 /  20  30  40  10  10   0 

Sandpoint      76  54  72  50  76  47 /  20  40  30  10  10   0 

Kellogg        74  57  71  56  74  55 /  10  20  10   0   0   0 

Moses Lake     81  53  82  52  85  55 /  10  10   0   0   0   0 

Wenatchee      79  58  78  58  84  60 /  10  10   0   0   0   0 

Omak           80  53  79  51  83  53 /  10  20  10   0   0   0 



&&



.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...None.

ID...None.



&&



$$

