FXUS66 KSEW 261556

AFDSEW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

856 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.UPDATE...No significant updates this morning to the public

forecast. Rain showers are still on track to move through the 

region this evening/afternoon. Please refer to an updated aviation

section below.





&&



.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over Western Washington through

Friday. A couple of weak systems will move through the area

later today and Friday. Upper level ridge building over the 

weekend into Monday for drier and warmer weather. The ridge will 

weaken slightly Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Satellite imagery shows

cloudy skies over Western Washington with a few breaks in the

overcast. Some light showers starting to appear on the western

edge of the radar range offshore. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in

the 50s. 



Upper level trough remaining over Western Washington through

Friday. Weak shortwave, currently near 49N/127W, will move into

the area late this afternoon and evening with shower chances

increasing at that time. Highest pops will be near the Canadian

border. Precipitation amounts, if any, will be less than a tenth

of an inch. Last shortwave in the series arriving Friday. Most of

the energy with this feature moving by to the north. Chance to

slight chance pops for most of the area. Best chance for light

showers along the north coast and over the Northwest Interior.

Highs both days will be cool, in the lower to mid 60s. Lows with

plenty of cloud cover in the 50s.



Upper level ridge beginning to build Saturday. 500 mb heights go 

from the low 570 dms late Friday afternoon to near 580 dms by late

Saturday afternoon. Light flow in the lower levels combined with 

strong June sunshine will dissipate the morning cloud cover 

leaving mostly sunny skies for the afternoon. With the added 

sunshine and warmer temperatures aloft, highs climbing into the 

mid 60s to mid 70s. 



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Extended models in good 

agreement the first couple of days with the upper level ridge 

continuing to build over the area Sunday. The ridge axis will

drift east Sunday night into Monday. Light northwesterly onshore 

flow in the lower levels will keep highs on the coast near 70. 

Highs over the interior in the 70s to lower 80s Sunday and mid 70s

to mid 80s Monday. 



Beginning Tuesday ensemble solutions become more widespread with 

an increasing amount of outcomes due to a weak upper level trough 

over California. A few solutions have convection over the Oregon 

Cascades in the late afternoon and evening but the convection 

never makes it as far north as Washington. General consensus is a

flat upper level ridge over the area Tuesday and Wednesday with

highs remaining above normal for the interior, in the 70s and 

lower 80s. Highs along the coast in the mid to upper 60s with

afternoon seabreezes off the upper 50 degree ocean waters. 



If you were in Western Washington four years ago you certainly

remember the next three days. The heat dome over the area resulted

in all time record highs on the 28th. In Seattle today was the

first of three 100 degree plus days in a row. Before this there

had only been 3 100 degree plus days on record at Seattle-Tacoma 

airport in the 76 year weather history at the airport. The high on

June 26th, 2021 in Seattle was 102 degrees followed by 104 on the

27th and the all time record 108 degrees on the 28th. Highs 

cooled on the 29th with Sea-Tac recording 85 degrees. Felton



&&



.AVIATION...A mixed bag of ceilings this morning ranging from VFR to 

MVFR, with ceilings bouncing back and forth at some of the 

terminals due to some breaks in the clouds. Most terminals should

improve to low-end VFR around 19z-21z. Terminals along the coast 

and Strait will likely remain MVFR throughout the day. Rain and 

showers during the afternoon- evening could lead to localized 

lowering of cigs/vis. More widespread MVFR slated to return early 

Friday morning.



KSEA...Currently low-end VFR conditions at the terminal this morning 

with some of the low-level clouds scattering. However, looking at 

the latest satellite imagery, it appears the low-level clouds moving 

from the west may cause ceilings to bounce back and forth, and have 

decided to keep MVFR in the prevailing line for now. VFR conditions 

expected around 19z-21z. Showers are in the forecast this afternoon 

and evening. SW winds 5-10 kt throughout much of the TAF period. 

MVFR cigs set to return early Friday morning.



McMillian/29



&&



.MARINE...A weak front will cross the waters today with no impacts. 

Westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca are favored each 

evening throughout the next several days but should remain below SCA 

criteria. High pressure slated to rebuild over the waters Friday and 

persist into the weekend, establishing northwest flow over the 

coastal waters. This high will begin to weaken early next week.



Seas will generally be around 3-4 ft throughout the week, increasing 

slightly during the weekend to 4-6 ft and persisting into next week. 

 

McMillian



&&



.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...None.

PZ...None.

&&



$$

