FXUS63 KPAH 262253

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

553 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for prolonged 

  duration daily peak heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees.



- Isolated to scattered showers and storms on Friday will

  increase in coverage over the weekend and into Monday. 

  Torrential downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds will be 

  possible.



- Temperatures will be slightly cooler this weekend, but

  humidity levels remain high keeping heat index readings in 

  the upper 90s to around 100.



- More seasonable temperatures (upper 80s) and lower humidity

  levels are expected by Wednesday next week along with dry

  weather.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Today marks day #6 with heat index readings reaching 100 degrees for 

most of our region. The upper level ridge responsible for the 

excessive heat is gradually breaking down, with daily rain chances 

increasing as we head into the weekend and early next week. An 

initial vorticity lobe migrates into our area Friday night into 

Saturday morning, which should lead to an uptick in convective 

coverage. Additional activity is likely to form on the outflow 

boundaries through the day. Yet another weak wave may meander 

towards us on Sunday, before the primary shortwave dives across the 

Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday which brings a cold front through 

our area Monday night. Precipitable water values are forecast to 

exceed 2" or slightly higher during much of this period, which will 

lead to very efficient rainfall from any storm. Little in the way of 

shear though, so storms will remain quite pulsy.



One more day in the low to mid 90s is forecast on Friday. The 

increased convection and cloud cover this weekend should lead to 

slightly lower readings in the upper 80s to around 90. However, 

dewpoints will remain high (in the mid 70s) so it will still feel 

very uncomfortable outside with heat index readings in the upper 90s 

to around 100. There is still some chance the Heat Advisory may need 

extended for portions of the region, but it may end up just shy of 

criteria. 



Models have trended slightly slower with the drier, less humid air 

working into the region, which may keep lingering PoPs going on 

Tuesday (at least in the south). There still is a good signal for 

dewpoints to fall into the mid to upper 60s next Wednesday and 

Thursday. So while temperatures don't cool off much (still upper 

80s), it will feel more tolerable outside (typical July heat). A 

couple of dry days are forecast before rain chances may creep back 

into the forecast by the 4th of July and into next weekend. Lot of 

model variability with regards to how far northeast the ridge builds 

again. This will dictate whether the heat and humidity return for 

the holiday weekend or we end up with rounds of showers and storms 

along the periphery of the ridge.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 546 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Generally expecting VFR conditions through much of this TAF

issuance; however, some patchy fog may develop late tonight at

CGI and MVN. The next chance for showers and storms will arrive

Friday afternoon with the potential for greater coverage than

this afternoon. Included a Prob30 group for the western TAF

sites as they are most likely to be impacted. The remaining TAF

sites will see convection arrive just after the end of the this

TAF period. Heavy rainfall in any storms may lead to reduced

visibilities Friday afternoon.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-

     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-

     085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...SP

AVIATION...KC

