FXUS61 KGYX 262255

AFDGYX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gray ME

655 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A front will bring chances for light showers through this

evening before high pressure pushes back in from the north

tonight. A warm front will lift northeast towards New England

Friday bringing increasing chances for showers Friday afternoon

into Friday night. Low pressure crosses Saturday bring periods

of rain. Weak high pressure builds in Sunday and Monday for

mostly dry weather with increasing temperatures. Temperatures

and humidity continue to rise Tuesday ahead of a cold front 

that will bring thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday 

night. Humidity will abate behind the front Wednesday.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

650 PM Update...Ridge axis continues to build in from the

northwest this evening allowing for dry weather and decreasing

clouds. It should be a chilly night where we radiate. In

addition, fog will be possible in those areas also.



Previously...



Light radar returns have been pushing west to east across the 

forecast area today, finally managing to overcome low level dry 

air. Echos have been aplenty for much of the morning and 

afternoon, but just over the last hour or two made it to 

surface observing stations. Most observations upstream have been

very light, with some only noting a trace or a hundredth of an 

inch. Present radar trends support this onset of light showers 

across far southern ME and much of NH over the next few hours. 



High pressure to the north tonight will keep dry air present. 

This will tend to limit duration of showers into this evening, 

as well as keep cloud ceilings elevated. Thinning cloud cast 

should be observed across much of southern ME tonight, and this 

may promote some brief valley fog into the Kennebec Valley. Of 

more uncertainty is if the same develops towards the CT Valley. 

Clouds may be more dense here limiting the retreat of 

temperatures with otherwise dry conditions.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Friday begins eerily similar to Thursday with mostly sunny skies

across the east, but increasing cloudiness into the afternoon.

High temperatures rise near Thursday's highs, but the warmer

temps look to be more concentrated towards central ME. This is

primarily due to the presence of thicker clouds in the AM for 

much of southern NH.



Winds become onshore Friday, with moisture again saturating top

down for increasing shower chances into the afternoon. Don't

anticipate more steady rainfall until Friday evening.



High pressure will have moved over the Gulf of ME Friday

evening, its return flow aiding in moisture advection into New

England. Isentropic lift will be underway to the west, and this

shifts east as low pressure exits the Great Lakes into Ontario.

HREF and NBM QPF has nosed north, with the western ME mountains

and far northern NH first receiving the steady rain. The

translation eastward along this region of lift will tend to

focus greatest precip amounts along a specific axis. This has

wavered by guidance and over time, as well as amounts. Noting

that jet coupling isn't as intense and a large spread through

the IQR of the NBM lowers confidence in 2"+ amounts. By Saturday

morning, a quarter inch of rainfall is possible for much of the

CWA, with amounts nearing a half to three quarters of an inch in

the mountains.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A wave of low pressure will track from Lake Ontario to the Gulf of 

Maine Saturday bringing periods of rain. A weak area of high 

pressure slides across northern New England late Sunday through 

Monday bringing mostly fair weather with an upward trend in 

temperatures. Low pressure will track into the St Lawrence Valley 

Tuesday with heat and humidity building across the Northeast. A cold 

front will cross the region Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing 

chances for thunderstorms. Somewhat drier air moves in behind the 

front while troughing lingers over the Northeast into the second 

half of next week. 



The 12Z model suite is in good agreement that there will be high 

chances for rain Saturday while subtle north to south differences in 

the track of the low is producing a spread in rainfall amounts and 

temperatures. Mesoscale models are favoring a low track near 

overhead that would limit the forecast area's residence time within 

the warm sector resulting in limited surface based instability and 

relative cool temperatures in the 60s. Event total QPF forecast is 

generally 0.5 to 1.5 inches with higher amounts possible in the 

mountains. Some elevated instability combined with high PWATs and 

deep warm cloud depths will bring potential for localized higher 

amounts in any convection that can materialize. However, 6 hour FFG 

is generally above 3 inches, which leads to a low risk for flood 

concerns with this event.



Chances for rain will diminish late Saturday into Sunday morning as 

the wave of low pressure moves offshore. Mostly fair weather is 

likely across much of the area by Sunday afternoon with highs 

climbing into the 70s. High pressure slides overhead Sunday night 

and offshore Monday. This will bring fair weather with temperatures 

into the 80s for highs. Humidity will also start to increase and 

will peak on Tuesday when dewpoints will make a run into the upper 

60s to low 70s. These high dewpoints combined with surface heating 

will likely yield ample CAPE across the forecast area for 

thunderstorms that will become likely Tuesday afternoon as a cold 

front approaches. Latest Machine Learning guidance out of CSU is 

showing a decent signal for strong to severe storms with this cold 

front. This seems reasonable with global models suggesting a frontal 

passage near and just after peak heating and modest height falls 

aloft. Temperatures look to remain seasonably warm into the middle 

of next week while dewpoints drop in the wake of the front. Cyclonic 

flow aloft will linger keeping some chances for showers in the 

forecast Wednesday and Thursday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Short Term...VFR expected for much of this evening and tonight.

Some guidance is bringing lowered ceiling/vis to points near

river valleys late tonight, and have included a brief mention of

vicinity fog here. For now, confidence in this occuring is low

due to existing cloud cover, but some may begin to thin later

tonight. VFR continues Friday, but clouds thicken and lower

overnight. Restrictions to MVFR and then IFR are likely first

across southern NH terminals and moving northward.



Long Term...Low pressure crossing the area Saturday will likely keep 

cigs near MVFR to IFR thresholds with periods of rain. Restrictions 

may linger through Saturday night before drier air moves in Sunday. 

VFR likely prevails Sunday into Tuesday. A cold front will bring 

chances for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.



&&



.MARINE...

Short Term...Conditions below SCA are expected. High pressure

moves north of the waters tonight before settling over the Gulf

of Maine Friday. This will promote onshore flow ahead of low

pressure moving into Ontario Friday night. 



Long Term...Low pressure approaches from the west Saturday and moves 

through the waters Saturday night. This will bring persistent 

onshore winds with gusts around 20 kts and seas climbing to 5-6 feet 

Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure slides over the waters 

Sunday night and Monday. South to southwest flow increases Tuesday 

ahead of a cold front.



&&



.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ME...None.

NH...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...

NEAR TERM...Cornwell/EksterSHORT TERM...Cornwell

LONG TERM...Schroeter

AVIATION...

MARINE...

