FXUS65 KABQ 262302 AAA

AFDABQ



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Albuquerque NM

502 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



...New UPDATE...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 459 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



- Shower and storm coverage gradually lowers through Saturday, but

  slow storm motion will keep the risk for flash flooding going,

  mainly on recent burn scars.



- Another surge of monsoon moisture moves in for the first week of

  July, resulting in greater coverage of showers and storms and 

  an increasing flash flood threat in the days leading up to the 

  Fourth of July holiday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 459 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



A more stable airmass is now in place over the Ruidoso area with

post-rainfall temperatures in the upper 50s and cloudy skies. The

Flash Flood Watch today has been cancelled. There is a high risk 

for burn scar flash flooding again Friday. Given the heavy rain

from today, antecedent conditions will be even more conducive to

flooding Friday.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Friday night)

Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



More monsoon-like thunderstorms have begun to develop across 

southern NM and along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo 

Mountains. Slow and erratic storm motions have raised concerns for 

flash flooding, especially around the Ruidoso burn scar areas. With 

the 12z KABQ sounding showing two inversions below 500mb (and quite 

the dry layer above), there was question how long storms would be 

able to sustain themselves. RAP soundings hinted at these inversions 

eroding by 1-2pm, which appears to have been the case as these 

storms have begun to sustain themselves a bit longer than 30mins. 

Storms are likely to continue to develop across the high terrain 

through the afternoon, mainly across the central mountain chain, 

then drift east to southeast into eastern NM later this evening. 

Minimal flash flood threat exists outside of burn scar areas, though 

areas in southeast NM that have seen substantial rainfall this week 

will not need a lot of rainfall to begin to see problems. Any storm 

parking itself over an area and refusing to budge will also increase 

a flash flood risk at any location. Much of the activity today is 

expected to cease by 9pm with the loss of daytime heating, with 

light rain showers potentially sticking around eastern NM through 

midnight. Friday shows a very similar setup with monsoon-like 

showers forming over southern NM and over the east slopes of the 

Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Coverage is favored to be even less over 

the northern half of NM due to the drier air making its way into the 

state, but the southern half is more likely looking at a near carbon 

copy to today in terms of development. Given what has occurred today 

and the expected development tomorrow, another Flash Flood Watch has 

been issued for the South Central Mountains, which is directed 

towards the Ruidoso area burn scars.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through Wednesday)

Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



The precipitation chances become the lowest of the forecast period 

during the weekend, though there still remains slight chances for 

showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain, including areas in 

and around burn scars. A high pressure builds over the area into the 

weekend, bringing temperatures back up to near average for late 

June/early August. This remains somewhat short lived as the high 

continues to shift westward and interacts with a shortwave trough 

just off the coast of CA late Saturday into Sunday. By late Sunday, 

the setup of this feature begins to send moisture around the axis of 

the high, eventually delivering it into NM from the north. This 

moisture also begins to interact with a backdoor front Monday, 

bringing an uptick in storm coverage across much of central andeastern NM. Also with this, MOS guidance has been keen on this 

backdoor front producing a gusty east canyon wind in the ABQ metro 

Monday night into Tuesday morning. Moving into the middle part of 

next week, the high pressure shifts back east over central to 

eastern CONUS while the aforementioned trough resides over western 

CONUS. This sets the stage for another influx of monsoon moisture 

right around the Fourth of July holiday and through much of the 

second half of next week. Given already saturated soils from this 

initial blast of moisture, an increasing threat of flash flooding is 

likely, especially on burn scar areas.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1149 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this 

afternoon across southern and southeast NM. To TAF sites, eastern NM 

terminals are most likely to be affected, though confidence was only 

high enough at KTCC to place a TEMPO from 00z to 04z. KLVS and KROW 

maintain PROB30s for TS development after 21z. MVFR conditions can 

be expected in any thunderstorm, and VFR conditions are expected to 

prevail elsewhere. Of all terminals in the state, KSRR shows the 

highest likelihood of showers and thunderstorms based on its 

proximity to a common initiation point with the Sacramento 

Mountains, with a timeframe of 18z to 03z. Showers are likely to 

exit the state between 04-06z, with SCT to BKN clouds remaining 

across eastern NM overnight.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 253 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025



Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop today across the high 

terrain, moving slowly and erratically around. Locally heavy 

rainfall is likely in these storms, enhancing the risk of flash 

flooding, especially around burn scars. Friday appears to be much 

of the same, with just slightly lower precipitation coverage 

across the northern half of the state. Areas west of I-25 and 

along and north of I-40 are very likely to see no precipitation. 

High pressure builds over the region this weekend, raising 

temperatures to near normal and limiting precipitation chances to 

the high terrain along the central mountain chain. Isolated 

elevated fire weather conditions are possible across western NM 

this weekend as humidity values dip into the low teens to single 

digits. Moisture begins to increase next week, and a backdoor 

front on Monday will help increase storm coverage across much of 

the state. Storm chances continue to increase across the state as 

a more traditional monsoon setup occurs around the Fourth of July 

holiday.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Farmington......................  53  92  56  93 /   0   0   0   0 

Dulce...........................  45  88  43  89 /   0   0   0   0 

Cuba............................  52  86  53  88 /   0   5   5   0 

Gallup..........................  43  89  48  91 /   0   0   0   0 

El Morro........................  50  85  53  86 /   0   5   0   5 

Grants..........................  46  88  50  89 /   5  10   0   5 

Quemado.........................  54  84  55  88 /  10  10   5   5 

Magdalena.......................  56  84  60  87 /  10  30  10  20 

Datil...........................  51  83  56  85 /  20  20  10  10 

Reserve.........................  53  90  50  94 /  10  10   5   5 

Glenwood........................  59  94  55  98 /  10  20   5  10 

Chama...........................  45  81  46  83 /   0   0   0   5 

Los Alamos......................  57  82  59  85 /   0  10   5  10 

Pecos...........................  50  82  56  85 /  10  20  10  20 

Cerro/Questa....................  50  83  53  85 /   0  10   5  10 

Red River.......................  41  73  44  75 /   0  10   0  20 

Angel Fire......................  36  77  38  78 /   5  20   5  20 

Taos............................  52  86  48  88 /   0  10   5  10 

Mora............................  46  80  48  83 /  10  20   5  20 

Espanola........................  56  90  57  93 /   0  10   5   5 

Santa Fe........................  54  85  59  87 /   5  20  10  10 

Santa Fe Airport................  54  88  57  90 /   5  10  10   5 

Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  91  66  93 /   5  10  10   5 

Albuquerque Heights.............  63  92  64  95 /   5  10  10   0 

Albuquerque Valley..............  61  94  63  97 /   5  10  10   0 

Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  92  65  96 /   5  10  10   0 

Belen...........................  59  93  61  96 /   5  10  10   0 

Bernalillo......................  59  94  63  96 /   5  10  10   0 

Bosque Farms....................  57  93  60  96 /   5  10  10   0 

Corrales........................  59  94  63  97 /   5  10  10   0 

Los Lunas.......................  58  93  61  96 /   5  10  10   0 

Placitas........................  60  90  63  92 /   5  10  10   5 

Rio Rancho......................  60  93  63  96 /   5  10  10   0 

Socorro.........................  61  93  65  96 /  10  20  10   5 

Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  85  57  88 /   5  10  10   5 

Tijeras.........................  57  87  59  89 /   5  10  10   5 

Edgewood........................  55  85  52  88 /   5  20  10   5 

Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  86  49  89 /  10  20  10  10 

Clines Corners..................  53  80  54  83 /  20  30  20  10 

Mountainair.....................  54  84  56  88 /  10  20  20   5 

Gran Quivira....................  55  82  55  86 /  20  30  20  10 

Carrizozo.......................  60  83  62  88 /  20  40  20  20 

Ruidoso.........................  54  75  56  80 /  30  60  20  40 

Capulin.........................  52  81  52  83 /  20  20   5  20 

Raton...........................  54  85  51  86 /  20  20   0  20 

Springer........................  56  87  51  88 /  20  20   5  20 

Las Vegas.......................  50  82  52  85 /  10  30  10  20 

Clayton.........................  61  88  61  89 /  30  10  10   5 

Roy.............................  59  84  57  86 /  20  20  10  10 

Conchas.........................  63  91  62  94 /  40  20  10   5 

Santa Rosa......................  61  87  60  91 /  30  20  10  10 

Tucumcari.......................  62  88  63  90 /  40  10  10   0 

Clovis..........................  64  88  65  91 /  30  10  10   5 

Portales........................  63  89  65  93 /  30  20  10   5 

Fort Sumner.....................  63  89  63  93 /  20  20  10  10 

Roswell.........................  66  92  67  95 /  20  20  10  10 

Picacho.........................  61  85  60  89 /  30  50  20  30 

Elk.............................  57  82  57  87 /  30  70  20  40 



&&



.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for 

NMZ226.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...42

LONG TERM....77

AVIATION...77

