AXNT20 KNHC 262303

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2230 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean: 

The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are

described below, and abundant tropical moisture over the same area

will continue to enhance the chances for significant showers and

thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and across portions of

Central America through at least tomorrow. This will increase the

potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly

terrain. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest 

rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua 

and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather 

Services in the region for more information.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W from 04N 

to 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is 

presently occurring with this wave.



A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 

18N48W to 03N46W. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Satellite 

imagery reveals scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 

10N-13N between 45W-51W.



A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W south of 

17N. It is moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate 

convection is noted from 11N-20N between 82W-85W.



A far western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 88W and 

south of 20N. It is moving westward around 5-10 kt. While there is

no deep convection over water associated with this wave numerous

moderate and scattered strong convection is noted over much of the

Yucatan of Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras. This wave is forecast

to merge into a broad cyclonic circulation that is over the 

eastern Pacific Ocean associated with Invest-EP95.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis passes through the coast of Senegal near

14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N31W, where it 

transitions to the ITCZ to 09N46W. It resumes west of a tropical 

wave near 09N48W and continues to 08N56W. Aside from convection 

related to the wave that is along 18N48W to 03N46W, scattered 

moderate convection is north of 04N east of 22W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A weak high pressure ridge extends from the Atlantic to over the

SE United States. This is promoting only gentle winds across the

Gulf this afternoon. Seas are 1-3 ft. Scattered moderate

convection is noted south of 22N west of 95W and north of 29N east

of 86W. 



For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters

through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds 

will pulse each evening and night north of the Yucatan Peninsula 

and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a locally tighter 

pressure gradient induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate 

E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere 

through early next week.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential 

for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and

Central America.



A moderate pressure gradient exists between the Bermuda High 

north of the Caribbean along with a 1010 mb Colombian Low along

the Pacific monsoon trough. This is promoting fresh to strong

trades over the central Caribbean along with seas 7-10 ft.

Elsewhere, the trades are moderate with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered 

moderate convection is noted from 11N-20N between 82W-85W.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 

and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E 

Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across 

most of the central and SW Caribbean. Winds will pulse to near- 

gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with 

moderate to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of 

Honduras will continue through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to

fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed at 27N64W, while a 1026 mb 

high is analyzed north of the area at 34N30W. South of these

highs, trades are gentle to moderate, except fresh to strong just

north of Hispaniola, through the Canary Islands, and nearshore to

Western Sahara and Mauritania. Seas are 3-7 ft. Scattered moderate

convection is noted over the Bahamas from 23N-29N between 73W-80W.



For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated 

ridge will prevail across the region through early next week. 

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S 

of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse late in the afternoon 

and at night N of Hispaniola through early next week. Gentle to 

moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere.



$$

Landsea/Levine

